Fund Management
Top Stock Picks – Quaero Capital
As investors face increasingly volatile markets, high inflation rates and geopolitical tensions, an investment manager highlights her firm's top stock picks this month.
Alice Wang, portfolio manager at specialist fund manager Quaero Capital,
outlines her top stock picks this month. Wang manages the
Quaero Capital Funds (Lux) – Bamboo, a long-only equity fund
with a focus on Greater China, India and ASEAN markets, and the
Quaero Capital Funds (Lux) – China, a blended, growth-bias fund
that aims to produce long-term capital growth by mainly investing
in Chinese A-shares, H-shares and ADRs.
Here are her top stock picks:
Futu Holdings (FUTU US)
Brokers are currently the most efficient way to play the China
stock market rebound with the principal options being China East
Money, Hong Kong Exchange, and Futu Holdings. Of these, Futu
carries ADR delisting risk but potentially the most upside too.
Even despite weak markets, Futu just reported 12.4 per cent
year-on-year trading revenue growth, growth of 24 per cent
year-on-year in total paying clients, and 24.78 per cent
growth in non-GAAP NPAT. Solid beat all around, which begs the
question; if Futu can do this well even in the most terrible
market of all time, what can it do when things get better? By the
way, these results are backwards looking. Given the 25 per
cent rally in the last few weeks, volumes will almost
certainly pick up in 4Q. At the peak of the China market, Futu
added 300k asset management users a quarter. Now that number
is more like 50k. We believe that there is more upside at 17x
2023PE with a projected 30 per cent earnings' growth and
it’s the cleanest play on a China market recovery and improving
Sino-US relations.
Teck Resources (TECK US)
Without the delisting risk and more of a value play, we also like
Teck Resources. This is Canada’s largest diversified mining
company, focusing on copper and metallurgical coal, with 65.9 per
cent of its revenues coming from Asia and 35 per cent from China.
China property woes have been the biggest drag on copper, and Xi
has made great strides in the last few weeks to stabilize the
property sector. If China reopens, property and construction
demand will start to recover. But even if it doesn’t, copper is
almost the single most useful metal in the green revolution – and
we think that this company has the best copper growth profile in
the market. The coal side is extremely profitable, and thermal
coal shortages are a big problem worldwide. A China reopening
would benefit this side of the business as well. The company has
very low cash costs and a clean balance sheet, and is trading at
5x earnings. For China naysayers like Soros and the ilk who
believe that China is forever doomed by its political system, the
obvious choice is India. Although nothing is cheap, Lemontree is
one company that we like.
Lemontree (LEMONTREE IN)
We remember when China’s hotel market only had 5-star inventory
and almost nothing below that. Then, a little company called
China Lodging came along and became one of the best compounders
in the market by standardizing low and mid-end hotels. Lemontree
is doing a similar thing for the Indian market, which is also
heavily dominated by 5-star hotel inventory. As the middle class
rises and domestic demand for leisure travel improves, many
travelers, particularly domestic ones don’t need to stay in
restored palaces built for wannabee Rajahs. A simple, clean, tidy
room with a clean restaurant will do. When we visited Lemontree
in September, we were very impressed by their extreme cost
consciousness. For example the paper towels are rationed, one
small leaf at a time, the beds are designed with a smaller
base for ease of cleaning and thereby higher staff efficiency.
And more impressively, the whole property smells, almost too
strongly, of fresh lemon zest. Lemontree has benefited from the
OYO fiasco this year as it’s clear that consistent quality is
possible only through stringent standards, and hospitality is not
a problem to be solved by an app. Having established its
pedigree, Lemontree is now pushing aggressively an asset-light
model which will dramatically increase its operating leverage
going forwards. Now we are going into the peak wedding season and
India is still reopening – Lemontree will be a beneficiary of
these short-term trends but its management philosophy and vision
will propel the company forward in the long term, as it
addresses a structural gap in the Indian market. But did I
mention it’s not cheap?
So that’s the problem with Asian markets today – many China stocks are cheap but politically risky whereas in India you have to stomach high valuations? We think that both regions are interesting, particularly against a depressing outlook in the West. On balance, we think China has more upside and clarity now post the October Congress and provides extremely attractive risk-reward, but India also certainly has a bright long-term future ahead.