Company Profiles
Tracking Investors' Dance Moves To Deliver More Alpha

Harnessing insights from behavioural finance, and drawing ideas from sports and other fields, a transatlantic consultancy and analytics firm argues that it is possible to delve into what produces consistent market-beating returns.
What is the secret of a wealth manager’s success? That is a
question that many who dream of great returns will ask. The
business sections of bookstores, physical and online, are stuffed
with guides on how to make money. And it is not just about
finance: sports coaches, health and fitness trainers and
self-help gurus extol success ideas.
Unpacking the process that creates investment success and
spotting patterns of mistakes is becoming increasingly possible
because of computers – they can harvest data on a previously
unheard-of scale – and also thanks to the insights of behavioural
finance. In the latter case, a whole discipline has arisen
that tries to understand the hidden biases and urges that
investors bring to the table.
Clare Flynn Levy, who founded Essentia
Analytics in 2013 after a long career in asset management,
thinks the process of investing can be analysed more closely so
that people’s results can improve. She also thinks that far too
many active investment managers haven’t used data correctly to
weed out errors.
“This is not about telling the client what they have to do but
rather about showing how to make good decisions,” she told this
news service in a recent interview.
The firm aims to unpack the strategies used by equity investment
managers in their quest to achieve “Alpha”, to see what patterns
of successful behaviour emerge, and what patterns of mistakes
arise. This is like the data analysis now being used by
professional sports teams to introduce small incremental
improvements that lead to improved win rates. (The book
Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, by Michael
Lewis, is an example of how a sports team manager crunched
performance stats of teams and worked out a winning formula for
baseball – although eventually the success faded when rivals
worked out his methodology.)
Once the analysis is made, Flynn Levy said, Essentia can develop
a set of “nudges” that notify the fund manager when they are
close to making a mistake as noted in previous analysis.
Flynn Levy gave the example of how her business can identify the
point at which a given portfolio manager’s ideas tend to run out
of steam (such as stop generating incremental Alpha), then nudge
them to review any position that arrives at that point. The
result is a reduction in “round-trip” investments, where the
manager first does very well with the investment, then gives all
the gains (and then some) back.
In a year when markets have been roiled by the global pandemic,
as well as the 2020 Presidential elections, such insights have
traction. And with equity yields squeezed by ultra-low interest
rates and managers’ fees under pressure, the ability to deliver
consistent returns is worth paying for. Clients include
AllianceBernstein, growing mid-sized managers like Brown
Advisory, and hedge funds like Black-And-White Capital. They’re
prepared to pay Essentia’s fees because the insights can increase
Alpha generation by an average of 150 basis points per annum.
Compounded over portfolios holding billions of dollars, the
impact is “huge”, Flynn Levy said.
Essentia has built case studies which it says prove its value. In
one example, in three years working with Essentia, a manager’s
outperformance vs his benchmark rose from 25 basis points per
annum to 93 bps - an extra 68 bps of alpha per year. That equates
to $108 million for his investors. For the manager - “Karl” -
that equates to an annual return on investment of 435 per cent on
his Essentia investment. In a second case study, a long/short
hedge fund called “John”, Essentia says that in 12 months working
with it, “John’s” trading performance improved from 102 bps per
annum to 451 bps per annum. That’s an extra 553 bps of extra
performance gained from “John’s” understanding of his own
behaviour and using technology to mitigate his biases, in the
first year alone.
Luck and judgement
Essentia’s value proposition brings up that well-trodden argument
over whether it is possible, if one believes markets are broadly
efficient (a big “if”) it is possible to deliver sustained Alpha
every time. That view is contested - if markets are
mean-reverting, is there not a zero-sum issue with some
investor’s Alpha coming at the cost of another’s lower outcome?
And how can luck and the sudden shifts in the market environment
be handled?
“It all comes down to whether you believe stock market investing
is a skill activity, to any degree. Some people take the view
that it’s not - that markets are efficient and that it’s
impossible to outperform over time. Our stance is that, while
luck plays a significant role, there IS skill involved - and that
an investor who can focus on maximizing their own investment
skill and mitigating their own biases can outperform over time
because the vast majority of other market participants are not
doing so,” Flynn Levy said.
“The luck part will even itself out, over time - that’s mean
reversion - but the person who maximizes skill ultimately wins
versus the person who doesn’t (and the latter is the vast
majority of human market participants). We believe that a big
part of why active fund managers have struggled to outperform
over time is that they haven’t had a data-driven feedback loop on
their own behaviour, so they haven’t actually been able to
maximize skill and mitigate their biases - they have no proof of
what they should be doing differently, to get a better result,”
she continued.
Flynn Levy, who is based in the US – her firm is also present in
London – said she formed the group to handle a challenge she had
as a fund manager. After the dotcom bubble imploded after 2001,
she struggled to continue generating the kind of results she had
been making before, and that got her thinking about where she was
going wrong from a systematic point of view.
One of the problems in the past with performance attribution
analysis was that it was good at showing what had delivered
results in the past, but not so great at showing what approaches
will work in the future, she said.
A big problem with the wealth industry has been the “star
culture” and the risk of people becoming bedazzled by such
persons, she said. There is a need for a shift in mindset.
It is possible for managers who analyse their habits and
practices to achieve sustained Alpha over a period of time. Flynn
Levy said: “We ask of managers, `what are his dance moves?’ Like
dance moves, an individual’s investment behaviour tends to follow
the same patterns over and over again. But if you can hold up a
mirror, that individual can consciously decide which moves to
repeat and which to stop doing altogether.”