Emerging Markets
Investors Are More Optimistic About Emerging Markets - Survey
A poll of investors finds they are more optimistic about emerging markets than they were in the previous quarter.
A poll of 83 asset managers shows they have become more upbeat
about emerging markets, possibly suggesting that some of the
recent angst about such markets has diminished.
The quarterly survey, carried out by Emerging Global Advisors,
produces an EGA EM Investor Sentiment
score. This score rose 28 per cent from 538 in the
first quarter of 2016 to 687 in the second quarter of 2016.
Scores range from zero (most negative) to 1,000 (most
positive).
"Positive” was the most common answer (47 per cent) for
respondents’ outlook for emerging market equities over the next
12 months, followed by “neutral” (43 per cent). This is a change
from the first quarter of 2016 when “neutral” was the most
common answer, the survey showed.
The last few years have not been kind to many emerging markets,
once the darling of global investors. The US Federal Reserve's
signalling of its end to quantitative easing, deceleration in
Chinese GDP growth and falls to commodity prices had
combined to hurt these markets. In 2015, for example, the MSCI
Emerging Markets Index was down more than 14 per cent. So far
this year, the index shows total returns (in dollars) of 11.36
per cent, against the MSCI World Index of developed countries'
equities, at just over 4 per cent since January.
The July survey of asset managers worldwide by Bank of America
Merrill Lynch reached a similar conclusion - that mood towards
emerging markets is improving - even though
globally cash levels have risen and equity allocations
have dropped. In the BoA Merrill Lynch survey, allocation to
emerging market equities jumped to a 22-month high in July –
reaching net 10 per cent overweight from net 6 per cent
overweight last month. The Japanese equity market saw its largest
underweight in three-and-a-half years, with the Japanese yen
perceived as the most overvalued it has been since January
2013.
Among other findings in the EGA survey, 49 per cent of
respondents expect to stay the course with their EM equity
allocation over the next 12 months, while 46 per cent expect
to increase their EM equity allocation, consistent with last
quarter; 78 per cent of respondents say their current EM
allocation is about the same or higher than 12 months ago, while
only 22 per cent say it is lower (down from
Q1 2016).
Among the managers polled, more than 72 per cent manage more than
$100 million in assets. The survey ran from 1 to 7 June this
year.