WM Market Reports
EDITORIAL ANALYSIS: The Challenge, Opportunity From China's Billionaire Explosion
Last week's UBS/PwC report contained many interesting elements, with the astonishing rise of Chinese billionaires as arguably the standout.
The recent
UBS/PricewaterhouseCoopers report on the rise in the number
and wealth of the world’s billionaires contained several
features, but few are more striking than the rapid ascent of
China.
While not without its risks and issues – China remains a
Communist-run nation and all that fact implies – the Asian
country’s explosive growth can be reflected by how 89 Chinese
entrepreneurs became billionaires for the first time in 2017.
That is three times more than the 30 who were minted in the US
during the same year, or the 34 created in Europe, the Middle
East and North Africa. China’s market is also young: Some 17 per
cent of new Chinese billionaires founded businesses less than 10
years ago; in the US, the comparable share is 7 per cent. To
put the figures into a global context, 199 self-made billionaires
were created in 2017.
Some other statistics grab the eye, and push back at populist
calls for swingeing wealth taxes to enforce equality. Far from
being passive recipients of great fortunes, over the past 40
years almost 80 per cent of the 40 main breakthroughs have been
driven by people who are billionaires today. About 70 per cent
are technology-related and 80 per cent of the companies behind
them are based in the Americas, with 20 per cent in Asia-Pacific,
the report said. Billionaires are behind the personal computer
revolution, smart phones, the internet and e-commerce, social
networking and GPS systems. And these are markets where scale of
market is also critical: these are segments in which billions of
people participate. Even if a person pays a few dollars a month
for such services, the men and women driving these business
changes reap huge individual rewards.
As PricewaterhouseCoopers
explain: “Many entrepreneurs are also growing businesses through
scaling them up, especially in Asia’s fast-developing, huge
markets such as China, India and Indonesia. As people move to the
cities and join the middle classes, so consumer markets are
growing quickly. They are easily accessible through e-commerce
that breaks down physical distances.”
I was struck by the level of detail in this report, reflecting as
it does, I suspect, UBS’ clear determination to be the banker of
choice for this billionaire population. The study looked at where
the 199 new billionaires of 2017 came from and what they did to
make their money. Some 22 per cent (28 billionaires) of the 127
Asia-Pacific billionaires made money in consumer and retail, but
only 1 per cent did so in tech, and the largest share – 25 per
cent (22 people) – did so in industrials. By contrast, some 16
per cent of 38 American billionaires (6 persons) made money in
tech, highlighting how Silicon Valley and other hotspots in the
US have an edge – for now.
Some big names are in the report: among the newbies is Chris
Larsen, co-founder and executive chairman of Ripple, the
Californian firm using blockchain technology to change the global
payments sector. (Blockchain is a distributed ledger enabling
peer-to-peer transactions without the need for third-party
authentication, and is most associated with crypto-currencies
such as Bitcoin.) Another joiner to the billionaire party is Wang
Jian, co-founder of BGI, a Chinese gene-sequencing company,
demonstrating how modern science is part of what is driving this
ultra-wealthy cohort. In the more traditional field of
foodstuffs, where scaling a business is important, Wan Long,
chairman and CEO of WH Group, is the world’s largest processor of
pork and producer of pigs.
The authors of the report are also keen to stress how “different”
China’s new billionaires are. For a start, they are on average
younger than their international peers. The average age is 55,
versus 64 for the world as a whole. This explains in part, the
authors say, why these billionaires are so open to disruptive
change because otherwise they risk losing their edge.
“They transform their companies repeatedly. For example, the
country’s e-commerce giants have moved into finance, offering
money market products with higher interest rates than banks. But
the climate of unremitting invention means that the flip-side of
rapid wealth creation is sudden loss of wealth,” the report
said.
Of course, these reports have to bear in mind that there are
flies in the ointment, such as the protectionist turn of the
Trump administration and associated geopolitical tensions arising
from Beijing’s attempt to consolidate its naval presence in Asia.
China’s one-child policy, loosened only a few years ago, will
create headaches for billionaires considering whether handing all
their wealth to one son or daughter is viable. Meanwhile, the
fact that so many wealthy Chinese are
keen to acquire foreign residency and passports under “golden
visa” regimes is not simply because they are status symbols and
an aid to globetrotting: future political ructions in China mean
that having an exit plan makes sense. (See an
associated comment here.)
Even so, the rise in the number of Chinese billionaires is
impressive. UBS, and some of its big-brand international
peers want a large slice of this space. They are likely to
continue emphasing their credentials as full-service banks, with
investment, commercial and private banking firepower under one
roof, plus their ability to offer a global reach and big bench of
analytical and advisory talent. Their work in helping wealthy
families to create family offices and other structures will most
likely be significant in creating revenue makers in the years to
come. Their hunger for this market also explains their spending
on branding: for the time being, UBS still considers sponsorship
of big events such as the Formula 1 motor racing series good
value.