A new report by Amundi expects the US dollar’s depreciation to continue. While Schroders has turned negative on the dollar, remaining positive on gold. Like a number of wealth managers, Pictet Asset Management remains upbeat on US, emerging market equities.

Paris-headquartered asset manager Amundi has released its 2026 Capital Market Assumptions paper in which it expects the US dollar’s depreciation to continue. However, the firm believes that the erosion of the dollar's central role in the global financial system will happen gradually, especially since the US is incentivised to and has the resources to defend the dollar’s hegemony.

The report takes a look at the long-term forces shaping the investment environment, the impact on public and private assets, and implications for asset allocation.

Amundi believes that the most compelling long-term opportunities are in undervalued currencies where domestic assets are becoming more attractive, including selected G10 commodity currencies. “In Asia, both the yen and the renminbi should appreciate gradually over time: the yen still benefits from its cheap valuation and a more normal rates backdrop, while the renminbi is supported by valuation metrics and by China gaining incremental leverage in regional and global trade and capital flows,” Amundi said.

This month, Patrick Brenner, chief investment officer, multi-asset at London-headquartered investment manager Schroders also downgraded his position on the dollar to negative. After benefiting from the recent surge in energy prices and speculative short US dollar positions unwinding amid the risk-off conditions, he expects volatility to normalise which will re-ignite a weaker dollar regime.

Like a number of investment managers, Brenner maintains a positive view on gold as the structural outlook is robust due to central bank reserve diversification, a declining appetite for dollar assets, and sustained demand from China and official buyers. Amundi also believes that gold is no longer just a commodity; but it is becoming a structural hedge against fragmentation and policy-driven risks. Chi Lo, senior market strategist, Asia Pacific, at BNP Paribas Asset Management has also said that central bank purchasing will remain a long-term support for gold, prompted by geopolitical tensions and an increase in the incentive for de-dollarisation amid concerns about dollar debasement. See more here.

US, emerging market equities
Brenner is optimistic about US equities, supported by strong earnings revisions and anticipated rate cuts. With valuations having been re-set, he maintains a positive outlook on US technology, which remains driven by earnings.

Amundi believes that US equities should still deliver the strongest Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth in developed markets at around 7 per cent per annum. On a sector level, in the US it is no longer only about software, models and digital adoption. It is increasingly about physical AI, data centres, power demand, semiconductor capacity, automation, robotics and industrial capex.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, also retains an attractive view on US stocks and expects the S&P 500 to move higher by year-end, supported by healthy profit growth and a still-supportive monetary backdrop. Within US equities, Haefele continues to favour consumer discretionary, financials, healthcare, industrials, and utilities, while staying constructive on AI-linked areas of the market.

Amundi believes that emerging markets (particularly India) stand out as a source of opportunity thanks to stronger EPS growth. Brenner continued to be constructive on emerging market equities this month, particularly in Korea and Taiwan, where markets benefit from technology exposure or attractive local rates.

Their stance is supported by Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, who sees a positive outlook for emerging market and US equities. “We have upgraded both emerging market and US equities to overweight but we remain selective,” Paolini said on Friday. “US stocks look especially attractive, supported by robust earnings, ample liquidity and the ongoing industrial and AI investment boom.”

“Companies in emerging markets are also benefiting from robust earnings and seem to be relatively protected from the impending energy shock. The developing world is well positioned to benefit from the AI cycle, as it is home to some of the world’s largest chipmakers, such as Taiwan’s TSMC and Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix – the trio that together make up nearly a quarter of the MSCI EM equity benchmark,” Paolini continued.

He maintains an overweight stance on Chinese stocks. “Strong monetary and fiscal stimulus should underpin domestic demand, while rising industrial production and AI-related exports should boost earnings in a market that has greater capacity than most to absorb external shocks,” he said. “We are neutral across non-US developed markets, where equity valuations remain fair but significant uncertainty persists over the economic impact of the war.”

At sector level, Paolini upgraded industrials to overweight. Industrial stocks are supported by global infrastructure spending and improving manufacturing trends. Capital expenditure in the US is booming, with core capital goods orders up 11 per cent year-on-year in March. He retains an overweight position in technology stocks, but prefers hardware and semiconductor companies to software firms. “While the valuation discount from the recent sell-off may prove temporary for a broad group of tech stocks, big tech companies’ investment plans for AI data centres and digital infrastructure this year – estimated at $700 billion – warrant a premium,” he added.

He also maintains overweight positions in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. “Both provide reliable protection in a stagflationary environment. The yen, in particular, stands out: the prospect of a widening of Japan-US interest rate differentials leave ample scope for a rebound.”

Patrick Kellenberger, emerging market equities strategist at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier also favours diversified and selective equity exposure with an overweight in emerging markets where exposure to AI’s suppliers is available at more attractive valuations. “We remain positive on emerging markets because they offer a compelling combination of faster earnings growth, a valuation cushion, and direct exposure to the same AI capex cycle that is driving US leadership – but at a more reasonable price,” he said on Friday. “The AI infrastructure cycle is increasingly dominant, with 80 per cent of the growth concentrated in semiconductor exporters, particularly from South Korea, and to a lesser extent Taiwan, where supply bottlenecks support pricing power.” See more here about US, emerging market equities.