Investment Strategies
US In "Relative Boom"; Heading Back To Monetary Normality, Fed Tells Conference

Normal monetary conditions are heading closer into view as economic data in the US improves, the Federal Reserve says.
The US economy is entering a “relative boom” with the
unemployment rate heading below 5 per cent this year – under its
long-term average – and the country should move gently away from
its zero interest rate policy to stay ahead of events, one
of the US Federal Reserve’s policymakers said yesterday.
The country is experiencing “boom times” compared with what it
has been experiencing in recent years, while the US enjoys
continuing “tailwinds” from the sharp fall in crude oil and low
global bond yields, James Bullard, president and chief executive,
Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, said. He is also a member of
the US Federal Open Market Committee, which meets to decide
monetary policy.
While some recent economic data has shown a slight slowing of
growth, labour market figures have been strong, with the
unemployment rate down to 5.5 per cent - around its long-term
rate, Bullard said.
While the world’s largest economy has halted its quantitative
easing policy for several months, investors are watching for
signs that the Fed will start to move away from the
ultra-accommodative monetary policy put in place since 2008.
Already, perceptions that the US is likely to begin tightening
policy ahead of the eurozone, for example, has seen the euro
exchange rate fall to near parity with the dollar.
“These factors put us in a position of normalisation for US
monetary policy in 2015,” Bullard told TheCityUK conference in
London yesterday. A zero interest rate policy is no longer
rational in the circumstances, he said.
Even so, US monetary policy will remain relatively accommodative
– when compared with history – for some time to come, he said.
Other speakers at the same event said that while the US might be
slowly emerging from its period of QE, other jurisdictions,
notably the eurozone and Japan, are continuing to see heavy
central bank purchases of assets in a bid to revive flagging
economies.