Trouble in the Ukraine and uncertainty surrounding the US economic recovery could bring long-run gains in the global equities markets to a halt.

Trouble in the Ukraine and uncertainty surrounding the US economic recovery could bring long-run gains in the global equities markets to a halt.

Stock markets, particularly in the US, have been on a five-year bull market run with the S&P 500 up 173 per cent from the bear market bottom on March 9, 2009. When compared to other bull markets at their five-year points, the current rally is the second-best performer since World War II, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, recently said in a note.

But a new survey by Charles Schwab shows that a fifth of traders believe the "good times" could be over within three to six months - up sharply from 10 per cent in December 2013. 

“Since 1942, only four other bull markets out of 12 have lasted into the sixth year, but the current one remains the second strongest after five years,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. “This bull market will need a catalyst to bring down the highs which may turn out to be the ongoing situation in Ukraine.”

Under half (42 per cent) of traders are optimistic that the bull market will last until 2015 or beyond on the back of continued strong performances in the technology, healthcare and energy sectors. Bearish sectors include utilities and consumer discretionary and materials.

“The marked uptick in bearish sentiment in the materials sector may also point to traders’ increasing concern about the overall health of the US economy,” Frederick added. 

Over a quarter of those surveyed - 27 per cent - said that consumer sentiment indicators have the most impact on their short-term trading strategies, while approximately 15 per cent said GDP is most important – followed closely by jobless claims and the unemployment rate, at approximately 13 per cent. 

Interestingly, 37 per cent of all respondents said that their trading strategies are unaffected by economic data.

Data from the Trading Services Sentiment Survey came from responses of participants in Charles Schwab’s Virtual Trading Event on March 19, 2014.