This publication considers what the UK finance minister, John Healey, might announce in parliament next Wednesday when he delivers his first Budget statement.

The UK stock of public debt has risen above £3 trillion ($4.01 trillion) and borrowing in the 2025/2026 financial year was £132 billion. Second-quarter GDP grew 0.5 per cent. 

Against that background, with inflation proving stubborn and 10-year gilt yields at around 5.4 per cent, the UK Autumn Budget on 28 October is unlikely to encourage wealth advisors to uncork the champagne.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey, who replaced Rachel Reeves in the summer, will look for what revenue-raising ideas he can, but he is constrained by concerns that tax, as a share of gross domestic product, is already close to a post-war record of 36 per cent. 

This is Healey's first Budget; Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces what is arguably his largest test so far since becoming premier in the summer, following the resignation of Sir Keir Starmer in the wake of poor opinion poll figures for the ruling Labour Party.

For those advising HNW individuals and families, few of the likely developments will be welcome; at most, there will be relief that some ideas being mooted, such as a wealth tax, may not be on the agenda. 

There has been speculation that Healey might raise capital gains tax rates in line with income tax rates, although those rumours appear to have been dampened down. Another possibility is a raid on the allegedly “excess” profits of the banks. But if banks are taxed more heavily, this will hardly encourage them to expand business in the UK. 

Hopes that Healey might give ground on inheritance tax (IHT), for example, by raising the £325,000 nil-rate band in line with house prices and other asset values, look misplaced. It also appears unlikely that the Chancellor will completely reverse Reeves’ decision to scrap agricultural property and business property reliefs from IHT. 

No wonder: IHT receipts keep going up. Receipts in September 2026 totalled £936 million, compared with the £671 million recorded in September 2025. From April to September, they were £4.7 billion.

Healey’s budget comes amid continuing concerns that the UK is leaking HNW individuals who prefer lower-taxed, more prosperous destinations. 

“The Budget should approach retaining taxpayers and raising revenue as part of the same task. In our practice we are seeing increasing numbers of wealthy individuals leave the UK and others consider doing so. Giving them reasons to stay through a stable, competitive tax regime should be central to securing sustainable receipts,” Phineas Hirsch, partner, private client, at Payne Hicks Beach, said in a note. 

“Reports that a capital gains tax increase has been rejected, alongside suggestions that an exit tax is not being pursued, are encouraging, although we must await the Budget for confirmation,” Hirsch said. “Clients have been weighing up their position because of uncertainty about a possible charge on unrealised gains, including those accrued before UK residence. Clarity would help them plan with confidence rather than [making them] feel they need to prepare for departure.”

Accountancy firm BDO said the UK Treasury could review and possibly cap the capital value of individual savings accounts and limit investment reliefs in Enterprise Investment Schemes.

BDO said there is an “outside chance” that the tax treatment of pensions will be made this year. 

Another possibility, BDO said, would be replacing Stamp Duty Land Tax and Council Tax with an annual land value tax. While it has supporters, it could be hard to implement quickly and valuations would be disputed, adding yet another tax into a lacklustre property market.

In general, the opinion is that Healey has relatively limited room for manoeuvre. With taxes already having risen considerably, the UK is arguably exceeding the optimum level of tax that a country can impose before taxes become self-defeating.

The UK’s fiscal challenges should not be seen in isolation; UK public sector net debt is 95 per cent of GDP. In neighbouring France, the net debt measure is 111.4 per cent on a comparable basis. French President Emmanuel Macron has struggled to curb spending. His predicament has been underlined by the civil disorder that has wracked the country in recent days, with riots in Paris, Lyon and other cities.

UK inflation was 3.5 per cent in the year through September, latest figures show, up from 3.1 per cent from August. The result is above economists' forecasts.