Investment Strategies

Roundup Of Wealth Manager Predictions On Economy, Investment Views

8 January 2015

Roundup Of Wealth Manager Predictions On Economy, Investment Views

Here is a selection of opinions about investment strategy and the market outlook from a range of wealth managers as 2015 gets under way, with developments such as the oil slide already raising eyebrows.

At the end of last year, this publication set out a variety of views from wealth managers about what the following 12 months will hold and as 2015 gets under way with dramatic shifts in the oil price and other markets, here is another collection.

Iain Tait, partner, private investment office, London & Capital
We think 2015 will continue on a path that was set towards the end of last year (increasing uncertainty and volatility in global markets) and our economists foresee global dis-inflation being a central theme for this year. Ultra-low rates will grind for longer than people assume - against a backdrop of extremely slow de-leveraging and sub-par global growth. Falling levels of inflation are being experienced in many advanced economies and within the eurozone, several countries are already in deflation. Even emerging markets are feeling downside pressure to inflation. Disinflationary forces were already at work before the recent oil price decline, but together along with lower food prices, it has added to the downside forces.  

While the fall in oil will subdue inflation, it should be a boost to the consumer and promote growth. This will lead to selective opportunities mentioned below. Oil falls will boost global growth but with a lag – typically $10 fall equates to circa 0.2 per cent boos to global growth.

In terms of how your readers can benefit from dis-inflation, although the trend for 2015 will be one of caution, there will be opportunities out there. With the debt burden of developed economies still high, deleveraging will continue to drag on growth, therefore a focus on quality and income is still advisable. Quality bonds could still hold up well against low rate, low growth and low inflation backdrop.

For example, US consumer staple and discretionary companies should profit from the extra disposable cash that shoppers will have post the oil price decline. Most likely consumer staples (we like PepsiCo), consumer discretionary (such as Walmart/GAP Inc) and industrials will benefit also (we like Honeywell Intl).

Stephanie Flanders, chief market strategist, UK and Europe, JP Morgan Asset Management
Like the fall in the oil price, an orderly rise in the greenback should be positive for markets and the global economy, helping to keep US monetary policy looser for longer while supporting a recovery in Japan and Europe. But a more dramatic shift in the dollar’s value would pose graver risks for emerging markets and could threaten global financial stability if the US becomes the only game in town.

Russ Koesterich, BlackRock’s global chief investment strategist
Starting with the US, the economy seems to have ended 2014 on a strong note, and leading indicators suggest that growth should continue. Third-quarter US gross domestic product was revised higher to 5 per cent, the best pace we've seen in 11 years. More importantly, forward-looking indicators suggest the momentum should continue. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) - an indicator with a particularly high correlation to future growth—just registered its best reading in eight years.

Stronger growth buoys corporate earnings and generally should support stocks. However, there are exceptions to this. Most notably, it may put pressure on defensive stocks, many of which outperformed in 2014. This is particularly true for utilities companies, often viewed as a bond-market proxy. Last year, the utilities sector benefited from the unexpected drop in interest rates. In 2015, yields are likely to remain low, but we do expect some increase in rates, a process which has already begun for shorter-term Treasury bonds. Rising interest rates are a negative for dividend plays, like utilities, as higher rates have historically been associated with lower valuations. This is particularly problematic today, with the sector trading at a premium to the market; historically, utilities have traded at a steep discount.

Risks in Europe, opportunities in Asia?
In Europe, the situation is very different. Markets are caught between the counter forces of growing geopolitical risk and the upside potential from further easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). The geopolitical risk in Europe is once again focused on Greece, where the parliament failed to secure the necessary majority to elect a new president. Another election is scheduled for 25 January, with the far-left Syriza party enjoying a lead, albeit a diminishing one, in the polls. The potential for more political turmoil has sent Greek stocks and bonds tumbling. For now, contagion to other markets has been limited. The lack of panic outside of Greece is largely based on faith that the ECB, in an effort to combat a growing deflationary threat, will expand its asset purchase program to European government debt.

Meanwhile, in Asia, the focus is on supporting growth through whatever means are necessary and available. In China, this is taking the form of more central bank easing, which has helped to push that market to its best level since early 2010. In Japan, the emphasis has shifted to structural reforms. The Japanese government plans to split the nation’s Post Holdings Co. into three listed companies and sell shares in August. This will effectively privatise Japan’s biggest bank. We expect to see more structural reforms over the course of the year.

Against this backdrop, we would point to a few key themes to start the year. First is the relative economic strength and less accommodative central bank policy in the US in contrast to weaker growth and more aggressive monetary policy in the rest of the world. This has several investment implications, including the prospect of a stronger dollar. Should the dollar continue to appreciate, that would exert more downward pressure on commodities prices. Last week, oil traded at its lowest level since 2009, natural gas traded below $3 per million BTUs for the first time since 2012 and copper hit a four and a half year low.

Second, with defensive stocks already at high valuations and vulnerable to any rise in rates, we would favour a more cyclical stance within US equities. We continue to see opportunities in "old technology" firms and in financials.

Finally, look for markets with tailwinds, either in the form of monetary stimulus or structural reforms. This includes both developed Asia (i.e., Japan), as well as emerging markets within Asia.

Shaun Port, CIO of Nutmeg, the UK discretionary wealth management house
Over the course of the past week, the oil price has fallen from $60 to under $50 and is driving sentiment lower. In several days we have seen oil prices decline by 5 per cent which is quite unbelievable. It bears close watching because often, when we see such a vicious fall in commodity prices, problems arise in emerging markets. As a generalisation I think the much lower oil price is very bullish for global growth and stock markets this year.

At Nutmeg, we believe it is too early to buy oil and commodity companies. Commodities are going to fall further because the super-cycle is going in reverse.

 

Register for WealthBriefing today

Gain access to regular and exclusive research on the global wealth management sector along with the opportunity to attend industry events such as exclusive invites to Breakfast Briefings and Summits in the major wealth management centres and industry leading awards programmes