Raffles Family Office released its "RFO 2026 Investment Outlook" last week; the firm is constructive on global equities which it says are driven by AI-led investment.

A global environment of moderate but uneven growth and accommodative monetary policies will provide a constructive backdrop for global equities in 2026, according to Singapore and Hong Kong-headquartered Raffles Family Office.

Yet policy divergence, geopolitical frictions, and differing sectoral dynamics across major markets will shape the return outlook. Although US equities remain the cornerstone of many investment managers portfolios, a number are diversifying away from US equities towards emerging markets and Europe. Swiss private bank Lombard Odier, for instance, believes that emerging markets look well positioned in 2026 despite a world of more intense competition for resources and technology. See more coverage here. The Raffles Family Office continues to favour US equities, driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and sees opportunities in China.

“We remain constructive on global equities, with a continued preference for the United States and selective opportunities in China/Hong Kong where policy alignment and innovation trends present pockets of strength,” Derek Loh head of listed equities said in the outlook report.

The firm said the US continues to demonstrate economic resilience, supported by innovation and domestic demand. US GDP growth can be broadly attributed to two structural drivers: demographics and technology-led productivity. The US strength is driven by AI-led investment, with AI remaining a key medium- to long-term driver of US growth

Meanwhile, China and Hong Kong equities enter 2026 faing familiar structural head-winds – real estate weakness, subdued household confidence, and persistent deflationary pressures. Although the authorities have intensified fiscal, monetary, and regulatory support, economic growth is still uneven.

Despite macro softness, the firm emphasised that China’s digital economy and AI ecosystem are continuing to expand rapidly. Notably, earnings expectations in the technology sector have remained stable, and valuations are significantly more attractive versus the US, for instance. This is creating a favourable setup for selective value, especially as investors increasingly seek diversification away from US technology’s elevated multiples.

At a media event in London last week, Philippe d'Orgeval, deputy chief investment office at Paris-based asset manager Amundi, was also positive about Chinese tech, saying it is much cheaper than US tech. In 2026, Lombard Odier also selected two themes in China: technology, which spans cloud computing, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, semiconductors, and sustainability, where China benefits from leadership in rare earths, solar and water conservation technologies. 

“Artificial intelligence remains a powerful structural theme, but the nature of opportunity is evolving,” the Raffles Family Office continued. The initial phase of infrastructure-led investment is maturing, with value creation increasingly shifting towards practical applications that improve efficiency and decision-making across industries. “This transition supports a more selective approach, favouring businesses that integrate technology into established operations rather than those reliant on continued capital intensity,” the firm added.

In 2026, the Raffles Family Office expects rotation and enhanced allocation driven by AI integration, tokenization of real-world assets, and growing demand for programmable, always-on financial infrastructure. Bitcoin remains central to this thesis, supported by liquidity trends, monetary debasement signals, and its role as the monetary layer of AI.

Private Equity
Jo Huang, head of private equity, RFO, anticipates a continued favourable regulatory environment for the firm’s main sectors in technology and artificial intelligence across both the US and China. In the US, she is concentrating on early-stage, capital-efficient AI verticals with clear scale pathways, while in China she prefers late-stage and pre-initial public offering (IPO) opportunities amid policy uncertainty. Taiwan remains attractive for semiconductor and supply chain plays with favourable exit routes. Risk mitigation centres on valuation discipline, stage selection, and liquidity management.

Fixed Income
William Chow, deputy group chief executive officer, RFO, expects global growth to remain solid in 2026 with tight labour markets and core inflation near 3 per cent. US fiscal and policy risks persist, with yields likely to rise and curves steepen. Credit remains supported by strong fundamentals, with carry driving returns and issuer-specific risks emerging. Emerging market credit looks stable, while China targets ~5 per cent growth amid property sector stress and expected policy support.