Surveys

Pre-Election Jitters Hit Sentiment Towards UK Asset Classes - Survey

Tom Burroughes Group Editor London 18 May 2015

Pre-Election Jitters Hit Sentiment Towards UK Asset Classes - Survey

A poll of investors conducted a day before a UK general election widely - and wrongly - predicted to lead to an indecisive result helped hit sentiment to UK asset classes.

Fears about the outcome of the UK general election of 7 May helped drive down sentiment in UK assets by the biggest extent since November 2014, according to a monthly barometer of opinions from Lloyds Bank Private Banking compiled a day before polls opened.

Eight out of 10 asset classes saw a drop in investor sentiment, with UK equities taking the largest hit, falling by 11 percentage points from April to a net sentiment reading of 26 per cent in May.

For the purpose of the Lloyds Bank Private Banking Survey, net sentiment is a figure showing the difference between persons holding a positive and negative view for an investment over the next six months. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov. A total sample of 4,478 adults were involved in the survey, of which 1,740 adults were investors. Fieldwork was undertaken from 5 to 6 May – a day before the UK election.

The data might even suggest that the old adage of “Sell in May, come back on St Ledger’s Day” – was a factor in investor behaviour. The pattern of selling stocks in late spring and returning in the autumn has been often commented upon, although the exact economic drivers aren’t always clear, and the pattern is not necessarily repeated each year.

UK government bonds saw the second biggest decline in sentiment among UK asset classes to 12 per cent, a monthly decrease of 4 percentage points. Sentiment towards some international shares, on the other hand, improved, with eurozone shares and Japanese shares reporting increases. Eurozone shares recorded the largest rise for the third consecutive month, of over 5 percentage points, but the net balance still remains in negative territory (-23 per cent), the survey showed.

Despite large declines, net sentiment remained strongest for UK property, at 47 per cent, whilst UK shares also remained strong at 26 per cent.

In contrast to waning sentiment for eight asset classes, market performance, in terms of returns earned, increased for four of the ten asset classes in the past month. Commodities saw the largest monthly increase in returns of 8 per cent, possibly helped by a recent oil price recovery. This was followed by Japanese shares and emerging market shares both sitting at 1 per cent.

“The results paint an interesting picture as a snapshot for UK asset classes. Having recorded their worst performance since November 2014 across all asset classes, the results show investor unease due to potential economic and post-election uncertainty in the UK in May,” Ashish Misra, of Lloyds Bank Private Banking, said.

“However, eurozone shares and Japanese shares have displayed positive performances and have gained from the halo effect arising around the outcome of elections in the UK. With continued significant improvement in net sentiment scores for eurozone shares, the asset class could be the one to watch out for with a potential to extend and sustain the current upward trend in the coming months, unless it hits an unexpected stumbling block,” Misra said.

In terms of an annual change of actual performance, six of the asset classes recorded an increase in returns earned, with Japanese shares (34 per cent), UK property (15 per cent) and US shares (11 per cent) leading the way with the largest growth rates.

However, on that timescale investors did not fare so well with commodities, where returns fell by 33 per cent, followed by gold (-9 per cent) and eurozone shares (-7 per cent).
 

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