Surveys
North American Investor Sentiment Pulls Up Global Confidence In November

Global investor confidence took a tumble in November due to a “relatively steep decline” in European sentiment, safety-netted by an improved outlook among North American and Asian individuals, according to the State Street Investor Confidence Index.
Global investor confidence took a tumble in November due to a “relatively steep decline” in European sentiment, safety-netted by an improved outlook among North American and Asian individuals, according to the State Street Investor Confidence Index.
This month the Global ICI dropped to 91.2, down 4.2 points from October’s revised reading of 95.5. By contrast, the North American ICI rose 3.2 points to 89.4 over the revised October value of 86.2, while the Asian ICI rose 3.4 points to finish at 98.9 from an October revised value of 95.5.
“Improved US economic data and consensus around the Yellen nomination implying delayed tapering seem to be leading to an uptick in North American investor confidence,” said Professor Kenneth Froot of Harvard University. “Investors in the US are still aware of the challenges and overall confidence reflects this as sentiment has yet to return to a more neutral stance.”
Meanwhile, European confidence - which hit its highest level since July 2007 last month - has “retrenched to near neutral territory driven primarily by weaker sentiment for the UK,” added Jessica Donohue, head of research and advisory at State Street Global Exchange.
This month's reading stands in contrast to the one in September, when a fall in sentiment amongst US investors - declining 7.6 points to 104.5 from August’s reading of 112.1 - drove down the index. When the same thing happened last month, Professor Paul O’Connell noted that investors were aware that the long-term fiscal policy of the US remains to be negotiated.
“The fact that the North American ICI posted a record fall in the same month that the European ICI posted its largest gain in almost three years tells you all you need to know about how policy perceptions are changing between the two areas,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of cross strategy research at State Street Global Markets.
Meanwhile, in an investment note, Standish Mellon Asset Management recently said that the US Federal Reserve could justify tapering its $85 billion quantitative easing program at "any of its next three meetings," based on the recent economic data. January or March 2014 are "more likely than December 2013," it said.