Investment Strategies
Julius Baer Is Bearish On Sterling, Says Switzerland Will Feel The Brexit Pain

It is not just the UK that will suffer from leaving the EU; Switzerland will also suffer collateral damage, the bank said.
Sterling’s weakness will continue as economic and financial data
remains negative for the UK following last week’s “giant leap
into the unknown”, possibly falling to parity against the euro
over the coming 12 months, according to Swiss private bank
Julius Baer.
“In this context, an expected breakdown of foreign direct
investments will expose the UK’s large current account deficit to
the attention of foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, Bank of
England rate hikes next year have been definitely wiped off the
table, eliminating support from interest rates,” the firm said in
a note yesterday.
The lender has revised its bearish euro/sterling forex rate
forecast to 0.93 over a three-month horizon and says it
would not be surprised to see a dip to parity within the next 12
months. It forecasts that sterling’s rate against the dollar
could be 1.18 for three months and 1.12 for 12 months,
respectively.
“In terms of economic forecasts, uncertainty will freeze
investments and hiring, resulting in a wipe-out of economic
growth in the second half of 2016. As the first two quarters of
2016 are already home and dry, the drag is fully visible only in
the 2017 forecast with 0.7 per cent average growth, down from a
previous 1.7 per cent. For inflation, collapsing growth will
contain the currencies’ inflationary effect and we expect the
consumer price index to rise not faster than 1.7 per cent next
year - enough room for the Bank of England to manoeuvre without
risking inflation to overshoot,” it said.
Of the three main safe haven currencies of the yen, dollar and
Swiss franc, the bank's economists prefer the dollar.
It argued that Brexit puts the Swiss National Bank under a
squeeze, saying that all bilateral trade agreements between
Switzerland and the EU are at risk.
The renegotiation of free mobility of EU citizens in Switzerland
is set to find a deaf ear in Brussels and to miss domestic
deadlines. Any unilateral implementation of the constitutional
mandate to cap this EU mobility will put all bilateral trade
agreements between Switzerland and the EU at risk. While the SNB
is determined not to give in, such a policy stance in the case of
the Swiss government could backfire and make the SNB’s task even
more difficult, the bank said.