Market Research
Investors Say Stock Markets Are Overvalued, But Recession Unlikely - BoAML

The firm's August Global Fund Manager Survey was conducted between August 4 and August 10; 202 panellists with $587 billion of assets under management participated.
Nearly half of investors claim equity markets are overvalued - a
record high - but most still value banks, technology and
pharmaceuticals stocks, according to new data from Bank
of America Merrill Lynch, the US’ largest wealth
manager.
Some 46 per cent of respondents to BoAML’s most recent Global
Fund Manager Survey say global equity markets are
overvalued, which could signal a correction is overdue as we
continue into the ninth consecutive bullish year on
stocks.
In spite of this, just under half (49 per cent) would be
surprised if a recession occurred in the next six months, and 28
per cent think an “equity bubble” unlikely.
Corporate shares are not showing signs of promise, according to
the data, as just a third (33 per cent) of investors think this
segment’s profits will improve over the next year – the lowest
sentiment level since November 2015.
“Investors’ expectations of corporate profits have taken an
ominous turn this year, which is a warning sign for equities over
bonds; high yield over investment grade; and cyclical sectors
over defensive ones,” Michael Hartnett, chief investment
strategist at BoAML, said.
Still, investors continue to favor banks, technology,
pharmaceuticals, insurance and industrials, while giving
utilities, telecoms, staples and energy the cold shoulder,
according to the survey.
Data shows that average cash balance remains steady at 4.9 per
cent globally, still higher than the past 10-year average of 4.5
per cent. European investors’ cash holdings swelled to 5.3 per
cent this month - the highest reading since March 2003.
“Fund managers are holding onto cash at a stubbornly high level,”
Ronan Carr, European equity strategist, said. “Even so, European
investors are positive on the growth outlook in the region, but
are moderating earnings per share expectations.”
Meanwhile, potential policy mistakes by the Federal Reserve and
the European Central Bank continue to pose the biggest risk to
markets, according to 22 per cent of respondents. Close behind in
risk rankings is a crash in global bond markets, say 19 per cent
of investors.