Investment Strategies

Investec Stays Defensive Despite Upbeat View On Economic Outlook

Max Skjönsberg London 16 August 2012

Investec Stays Defensive Despite Upbeat View On Economic Outlook

Investec Asset Management thinks risky assets have performed better than expected after the recent run of poor economic data, as well as suggesting that the situation may turn rosier in not too long a time.

The asset manager believes that equities and credit spreads have found support from defensive investor positioning and the expectation that the world's major central banks are going to embark on further money printing this year.

On the back of policy easing initiatives coupled with falling inflation, Investec thinks "there are good reasons to assume that we are due a run of better data later this year".

"That said, it is still too soon to sound the all clear; a range of issues could cause risk markets to turn more bearish," said John Stopford, co-head of Fixed Income at Investec, highlighting that Spain and Italy are at risk of losing market access.

Stopford also said that a Greek exit from the monetary union is still a real risk. Outside the EU, he said the Chinese economy has been slow to respond to looser policy and that many US firms are postponing investment until after the so-called "fiscal cliff" - package of expiring tax and spending cuts coming into force at the start of next year, which is expected to result in logjam in the US government between the Democrats and Republicans.

For those reasons, Investec remains defensively invested. The firm thinks corporate bonds could be poised for further gains, despite the disappointing macro data and slowing revenue growth. "Default rates remain low, with default rates in Europe below those in the US," Stopford said. "Rates are forecast to increase from these low levels, but only very modestly over the remainder of the year."

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