Banking Crisis
Greece Snubs Eurozone Austerity Measures - Wealth Managers' Reactions

Here is a roundup of views about the potential investment fallout from the Greek national elections and voters' rejection of current austerity programmes.
Greece has a new, left-wing government in the form of the Tsipras Syriza party, led by Alexis Tsipras. The party has vowed to push back at austerity measures insisted upon by eurozone policymakers as a condition of receiving bailouts to save the debt-laden Greek economy. Greece has had almost five years of economic measures to try and deal with its fiscal position, but these have proven intensely unpopular in the Southern European nation. The fear remains that the eurozone could be torn asunder if Greece were to leave the single currency bloc – the so-called “Grexit” option. The euro has already come under pressure, as fears grow that other countries chafing at the discipline of being inside a single currency will try to change any controls.
Here is a selection of views from wealth managers, economists and other financial industry players on what the Greek situation means:
Andrew Belshaw, head of investments at Western Asset,
Legg Mason's largest global fixed income manager.
“The Greek election result is only the second act of a week that
has exposed some of the structural problems of the eurozone, from
the delay in taking quantitative easing action to the
challenge of having a monetary union without a political union.
The new Greek government now faces a tough negotiator in Merkel
[the German chancellor] and other European leaders, and the
plunging euro is nothing but a reflection of this. It doesn’t
look as if that is going to change any time soon.”
Kevin Doran, chief investment officer, Brown
Shipley.
“Whilst the cumulative impact of almost five years of genuine
austerity has provided the wave upon which the
ultra-left-wing party, Syriza, has won the election, the weight
of opinion within the nation remains behind the euro project.
Though the market impact of a Greek exit could now be contained,
the consequences of casting out the people of the Hellenic
Republic would prove catastrophic for them and an unnecessary
social experiment, designed solely for the purposes of making a
point of principle.
“Instead, the more likely outcome ought to display echoes of the debt restructuring that took place within Detroit. A combination of some forgiveness, structural reforms on social care and the ability to repay over a protracted period of time would allow the nascent recovery to take hold, before the future inflation resulting from the European Central Bank's QE programme helps with some of the heavy lifting.”
Stephen Thariyan, global head of credit at Henderson
Global Investors.
“Greece has voted and must balance the pain of austerity against
the potential for growth. The election results in Greece should
not be seen as a surprise. Other than the Swiss National Bank’s
dropping of the Swiss franc currency peg to the euro, there have
been few real surprises. Even [ECB chief] Mario Draghi's ability
to surprise the markets with the level of QE does not count:
because he was always going to surprise!
“The Greek vote will hardly provide a reason for markets to rally but most capital markets had already priced this in. However, the vote is definitive and capital markets will ultimately respond in some way to this fact. I find it hard to believe, given Draghi's clear desire to facilitate a monetary environment for investment and growth, that the Greek electorate cannot see the reason to balance the pain of austerity against the potential for growth. They need to buy into the liquidity injections on offer and, in my opinion, must tap into the largest European stimulus ever designed.
"Draghi has provided a reason for optimism but the mechanism for Greece to be involved is predicated on compliance by everyone in government in Greece. After a weekend for investors and asset managers to analyse the scale of QE, they now have to take on the implications of this vote. The danger lies with the repercussions of the vote having an impact now, while the sheer scale of the QE does not kick in until March.
“Our markets are skittish enough but as an investor I predict normality and stability, given that in my opinion Greece wants to stay in the EU. The path to that scenario will not be without its moments, but they are moments, which I believe Europe can deal with - Europe has a central bank that has bite. As for this vote, I am inclined to buy on weakness.”
Alan Wilde, head of fixed income, global at Baring Asset
Management.
“The Greek result is a great paradox in the sense that we are
told the Greek people are voting against austerity measures but
wish to remain within the eurozone. In the next few weeks
‘headline risk’ is going to be high as Syriza seek to
re-negotiate bailout terms with the Troika. Germany has
reiterated this morning that the Greek people have a legal
contract with the Troika to receive more funds but if they break
this and by implication seek to re-negotiate the terms of debt
repayment, no more funds will be available in March and this will
test the new Greek government’s resolve. Brinkmanship is the name
of the game.”
Paras Anand, head of European equities at Fidelity
Worldwide Investment.
“As largely expected, Syriza has emerged as the largest party in
last night's Greek elections. Its mandate from the electorate is,
in essence, to renegotiate the terms of membership with the
eurozone and free the economy from a seemingly endless period of
contraction through restructuring its debt obligations. Whilst I
would imagine that much will be made of a renewed threat to the
euro project as a result of this outcome, I would argue that
there are reasons to believe that the impact for European
investors and even for economic growth across the region may be
more modest than feared.
“With the serious prospect of victory looming, Syriza has repeatedly stated a desire to remain within the single currency. Whilst this is far from guaranteed, what will be potentially attractive to other member states will be the party's determination to address vested interests and clamp down on corruption and the grey economy. In order to establish a stronger foundation, the Greek economy must move toward a broader base of tax revenue. This will only happen if a deep-seated culture of avoidance is addressed. The emphasis of key creditors within the eurozone has already shifted from austerity to reform and Syriza may find greater support from the mainstream European parties than its 'radical' tag would suggest.
“The election victory may be read as an indication that populist parties across the region will have the same success, compounding the threat to a 'fragile' currency union. I would challenge this observation. It is clear that Syriza’s core political agenda will fall way short of the 'hopes' of the more radical factions within the party. Also, the challenges facing the Greek economy remain uniquely challenging within the region. Whilst Greek borrowing costs rose substantially from the second half of last year, we have continued to see spreads tighten across most of the economies that were deemed to be vulnerable during the sovereign crisis.
“Arguably at the forefront of most investors' minds is the risk of contagion. The outcome of the Greek election is the latest but will certainly not be the last negative focal point for European commentators. It is, however, worth taking a step back and reflecting that the financial sector across Europe is in a significantly more robust position today than it was at the last 'peak' of the sovereign crisis in 2011.
“Over the last few years we have seen the major financial institutions across the region rebuild capital, reduce cross-holdings and undergo a rigorous stress test, which implies that the ability for the sector to absorb shock is now substantially greater. That is not to say that tail risks within the eurozone have evaporated entirely, it is just to emphasise that the degree to which localised issues have the capacity to materially and immediately alter the risk premium throughout the region has clearly reduced. To that end, it suggests that returns are more likely to be driven by fundamentals going forward to a greater extent than has been the case at various (sometimes extended) points over the last few years.”