Market Research
Eurozone Recovery Is Good, But Single Currency Region May Not Be Out The Woods - Sarasin

With the eurozone pulling out of an 18 month-long recession, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel, after six consecutive quarters of overall negative economic growth plagued the single currency region, said a commentary by UK investment firm Sarasin & Partners.
Gross domestic product figures for 2013’s second quarter were announced this week, and suggest a hint of change, as growth reached a positive 0.3 per cent. One of the driving forces behind this was Germany, while French consumers also contributed by using their savings to bolster spending in the economy. In conjunction with this, euro leaders have less austerity in the pipeline, creating less of a drag on growth, the commentary said.
“At first glance, it is difficult to bill this as anything other than a piece of good news for the region. Certainly, a positive growth figure after a year and a half of recession is not to be slighted, but taken in the context of a still weak European recovery this is not so much an influx of good news as a reduction in bad," said the firm.
As such, Sarasin is advising investors to be wary of drawing too many positive conclusions from the recent data.
“The eurozone still has much to contend with: both public and private sector debt remain high, as does unemployment. Perhaps most crucially, an economic growth figure which – though positive – remains so close to zero can only ever be slight cause for celebration," the firm explained.
Sarasin is not the first firm to be wary of the European recovery. BofA Merrill Lynch recently hailed the positive developments in the eurozone in their monthly fund manager survey, as eurozone optimism reached a nine-year high.
However, the firm’s European investment strategist, John Bilton, also said that the “growth optimism is fragile, and investors might be a touch too optimistic on the pull-back of European austerity, especially when it is unlikely that Berlin will be willing to see a turn-around on structural reforms”.
In light of this, Sarasin considers it likely that the European Central Bank, under President Mario Draghi, will maintain its accommodative monetary policy, until the economy shows signs of a more lasting recovery. Yet there is still room for European investors to celebrate slightly.
“The single currency region may not yet be out of the woods, and there are doubtless some painful years yet to come, but this small sign of optimism should still be welcomed,” the commentary concluded.