Investment Strategies
Credit Suisse's Private Bank Smiles On Taiwan, South Korea Markets; Frowns On India, Thailand

Credit Suisse’s private bank expects to see a “mild acceleration” of Asian economic growth in the second half of this year, with those countries more geared to improvements in the cycle seen as best placed to benefit.
The bank, with SFr1.25 trillion ($1.35 trillion) of assets under management, has raised its investment stance on Taiwan equities to overweight from neutral, and turned more positive on South Korea, taking a neutral stance, having previously been underweight.
The Zurich-listed firm said it has turned more positive about Taiwan and South Korea because these countries’ underlying economies are in better shape and well positioned to benefit from a US recovery and stronger performance in the technology secotrs.
On the negative side, Credit Suisse said it has cut its exposure to India and Thailand from overweight to neutral, due to weakening earnings momentum and a less attractive rate of return for the level of expected risk.
“With a growth recovery coupled with rising rates later on, our top Asian equity themes for H2 2013 focus on recovery, urbanisation, consumption and infrastructure stocks,” the bank said.
Following a temporary global soft patch in Q2 2013, non-Japan Asia is expected to see a modest gross domestic product growth recovery of 6.2 per cent in 2013 and 6.5 per cent in 2014, with subdued inflation,” the bank continued.
“In China, India and Indonesia, which are large and more domestic-oriented, economic growth should be led by domestic demand and government policy.
The export-oriented economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, are expected to benefit from an improving external demand outlook. Our global economics team is confident that the US economy will remain on track to grow at 2 per cent in 2013 and 2.5 per cent in 2014, as past monetary impulses feed into credit creation, household spending and corporate expenditure,” it said.
As far as Asia’s largest economy, China, is concerned, Credit Suisse said it has cut its GDP prediction on the country to 7.6 per cent for 2013 and 7.5 per cent in 2014, down from 7.8 per cent for both years. Sluggish performance so far this year and increasing policy tolerance for slower growth, are reasons for the bank’s move, it said.
“Regulation on shadow banking and the government’s frugality restrain growth. Consumption growth should still be supported by positive wage growth, and fixed asset investment is likely to keep growing with signs that some local infrastructure projects are going ahead after the State Council reshuffle in March,” it added.
As far as Indonesia is concerned, Credit Suisse said it maintains its 6 per cent GDP growth forecast for both 2013 and 2014.
Among the data presented, Credit Suisse notes that the 12-month price-earnings ratio on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of equities is currently 12.1 times earnings, while 12-month EPS growth is 22.3.