Investment Strategies

BNP Paribas Notes Seven Trends Driving Asia's Economy

Tom Burroughes Group Editor 19 August 2013

BNP Paribas Notes Seven Trends Driving Asia's Economy

Those number crunchers at mighty French banking group BNP Paribas have spotted what they see as seven key drivers of change in the very fabric of the Asia-Pacific economy in the next few years – with some developments already under way.

It is an example of the kind of “thematic” approach to investing that we journalists occasionally note in today’s asset management sector. To avoid some of the distortions that can arise by holding stocks on the basis of being on a “British” or “Singapore” or “Hong Kong” exchange, investors look at the underlying themes pushing growth in a particular kind of business to get that coveted diversification and growth.

BNP Paribas’ research teams say the following themes are worth tracking in Asia:

-- Rising discretionary consumption. This means that as the Asia population gets richer, spending shifts from the basics to discretionary items such as lifestyle products, cars and luxury travel. That means airlines, jewellery suppliers and travel agencies, for example, stand to benefit.

-- Ageing population and healthcare costs. As a theme, this has been around for a while now. Healthcare providers and pharmaceutical companies are obvious beneficiaries. There is also the impact of Western patients using cheaper, but good-quality, Asia providers to factor in.

-- Alternate consumption channels. Clients are looking to larger retailers and moving away from small “mom-and-pop” stores, the report said.

-- Infrastructure creation and renewal. The rising Asian economies are still, so the argument goes, lacking in infrastructure. Indonesia and India are yet to “urbanise in a meaningful way”, BNP Paribas says. Firms linked to this sector should benefit.

-- Financiers of investment and consumption. Banks and other financial institutions that mediate between savers and investors should benefit. The key is finding banks with no asset quality question marks.

-- Cleaning up the environment. Asian economies, BNP Paribas said, will see an intensifying focus on renewable energy, resource conservation and moves to combat pollution, although as themes go this is a long-term affair.

-- And finally, a theme is “declining labour supply”. As birthrates decline and people live for longer, expect automation (robot-made cars, more use of IT, etc) to pick up the slack.  

 

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