Real Estate

Asia-Pacific's Core Commercial Property To Earn Modest Rental Growth - C&W

Tom Burroughes Group Editor 22 July 2015

Asia-Pacific's Core Commercial Property To Earn Modest Rental Growth - C&W

The property investment specialist, with a large footprint in Asia, issues a new report on the state of the office market in centres such as Hong Kong and Singapore.

Rental growth in the Asia-Pacific region’s core markets will rise by around 1 per cent and remain stable in most emerging markets through next year, as supply hits record levels in each of the coming three years, according to Cushman & Wakefield, the real estate firm.

Economic growth will boost leasing activity to reach a seven-year high of more than 73 million square feet this year, rising further in 2016, the firm said in a report on property trends in the region.

Hong Kong and Singapore, the two main financial hubs in the region, have seen their property markets come under pressure, in part because of efforts by their governments to cool what had been hot markets and to avoid excesses of bank exposure to brick-and-mortar assets.

"In our latest forecast, we see that for the core markets in the region, the rental outlook will realign with the onset of supply especially in Singapore while any meaningful growth in Australian cities will likely emerge in 2017," Sigrid Zialcita, managing director of research for Asia-Pacific, Cushman & Wakefield, said. "Notably, the core markets of Tokyo and Hong Kong will see rents grow in the mid-to-high single digits, driven by favourable demand and supply fundamentals,” Zialcita said.

The trend of Chinese financial companies expanding their operations in Hong Kong's Greater Central region is gaining momentum with the relative success – at least before the mainland market equity slump since 12 June - of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme, which will continue to be sustained as the scheme will be expanded to include Shenzhen's bourse, the firm said.

“Clearly, Hong Kong's office market is benefiting from the up-tick in demand from the financial sector, largely driven by those from the mainland, with spillover effects emanating to those providing services to these firms,” the report said.

Zialcita said that the grade A office markets of Shenzhen and Shanghai are also expected to be among the mainland's best performing in terms of rental growth, which are further spurred by plans to develop economic zones in these cities.

Overall grade A office availability in Greater Central tightened to 4.0 per cent - the lowest figure since Q3 2008; availability at Citibank Plaza, which was highest at 21 per cent in the first quarter, dropped to 3.4 per cent in June after BlackRock, Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters took up about 130,000 square feet last quarter. Among the region's core markets, rent growth in Hong Kong's central business district is expected to be surpassed only by Tokyo, it said.

"We expect the potential launch of the second phase of the Stock Connect scheme to improve business sentiment and sustain leasing activity in Central, particularly from financial companies. Limited new supply, which is expected to persist through 2016, will continue to support rent increases," John Siu, managing director, Cushman & Wakefield, Hong Kong, said.

In contrast, office rents in the prime areas of Singapore's central business district were seen to have weakened in the second quarter after more than two years of growth; supply is also building up as the island will see over 3 million of new office space completing in its core CBD next year.

On the back of this, the report said, have been recent moves by banks and tech companies to relocate to business parks where rents are at least 30 per cent lower. For instance, over 300,000 square feet of office space has already been vacated by some new tech firms during the past year through the first quarter of 2015; these companies cite ample space options and lower rents in fringe locations, providing them flexibility for expansion and freeing up capital for other expenditures or recruitment, the report added.

 

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