Market Research
Win The World Cup And Feel An Economic Spike, Goldman Says
Winning the World Cup is about national pride and sporting prowess but it can also provide a economic boost for countries that perform well in the tournament, Goldman Sachs said in a report.
Winning the World Cup is about national pride and sporting
prowess but it can also provide a economic boost for countries
that perform well in the tournament, Goldman Sachs said in
a report.
Looking back in history the winner’s equity market outperforms the global market by 3.5 per cent on average in the first month after the tournament - although the bank does point out that this buoyant sentiment usually only lasts for a short period of time.
In contrast the runner up appears to catch a bout of the blues with their stock markets averaging a fall of 5.6 per cent over the first three months.
“The pattern of outperformance following victory at the World cup is fairly consistent over time. All the winners since 1974 have outperformed in the post-final month, with only one exception – Brazil in 2002!,” the report said.
The firm has also predicted that Brazil will win the World Cup this summer beating Argentina in the final, while England will not make it out of its group.
“What is unusual about the lead-up to this World Cup is that the views of English and non-English are very closely aligned regarding the prospects for the England team: pretty much everybody agrees that England will do badly,” the report added.
However Goldman’s suggests that England’s predicted poor performance could actually be a good thing. “The UK economy tends to do better when England’s football team is doing worse. If England does do well in the World Cup, we may have to adjust our economic forecasts downwards,” it said.
Looking back in history the winner’s equity market outperforms the global market by 3.5 per cent on average in the first month after the tournament - although the bank does point out that this buoyant sentiment usually only lasts for a short period of time.
In contrast the runner up appears to catch a bout of the blues with their stock markets averaging a fall of 5.6 per cent over the first three months.
“The pattern of outperformance following victory at the World cup is fairly consistent over time. All the winners since 1974 have outperformed in the post-final month, with only one exception – Brazil in 2002!,” the report said.
The firm has also predicted that Brazil will win the World Cup this summer beating Argentina in the final, while England will not make it out of its group.
“What is unusual about the lead-up to this World Cup is that the views of English and non-English are very closely aligned regarding the prospects for the England team: pretty much everybody agrees that England will do badly,” the report added.
However Goldman’s suggests that England’s predicted poor performance could actually be a good thing. “The UK economy tends to do better when England’s football team is doing worse. If England does do well in the World Cup, we may have to adjust our economic forecasts downwards,” it said.