Real Estate
While Economic Clouds Darkened, House Prices Still Rose Worldwide

House prices in the main residential markets of the world mostly rose last year even though economic headwinds blew more strongly, particularly towards the end of 2015.
Concerns over the global economy last year failed to dent buyer
confidence, a global housing price index of 55 markets by
Knight Frank
found. Global prices increased by 3 per cent in 2015, up from 2.3
per cent in 2014, thanks to a low interest rate environment.
At 12.4 per cent, Australasia is the region with the highest
annual housing price growth rate. The increase there is more than
double that of the follow-up region, the Middle East. But
according to OECD data of 24 of its 34 member countries, New
Zealand and Australia are also among the least affordable
places - overvalued at 32 and 29 per cent respectively.
Asia ranks second last at 1.9 per cent annual price growth. With
Taiwan and Singapore already seeing negative growth for a number
of quarters, Hong Kong's 3.7 per cent market decline in Q4 2015
contributed to the lacklustre rise.
“Although house prices in Hong Kong increased in 2015, the rate
of growth has slowed significantly from 17 per cent in the year
to September to 7 per cent in the year to December 2015,” said
Kate Everett-Allen, international residential research partner at
Knight Frank.
“The slower rate of growth is attributable to rising supply (more
than 11,200 homes were completed in 2015), as well as China’s
financial market volatility and the expectation of increasing
interest rates,” she added.
Although the data needs to be fully understood in context, the
figures can shed light on the changing relative fortunes of
economic regions. In recent years, Singapore and Hong Kong, for
example, have seen residential prices come off the boil, in part
because of efforts by policymakers to curb leverage and exposure
to any property price reverses. Wealth management centres such as
those of London, New York, Geneva and Zurich have seen rapid
price growth at times.
Knight Frank expects the index’s overall rate of growth to be
weaker in 2016 than 2015. The global economy is experiencing a
potentially dangerous cocktail of low oil prices, a strong dollar
and a continued slowdown in China. Some 43 of the 55 housing
markets tracked in Knight Frank’s index saw prices rise, up from
10 countries in the aftermath of Lehman’s collapse in the second
quarter of 2009.
Despite being marred in recent years by terrorist attacks and
political upheavals, Turkey led the ranking with an 18 per cent
price rise during 2015. The country is increasingly viewed as a
safe haven for Middle Eastern investors, bridging East and West
whilst also seeing strong population growth, according to Knight
Frank.
Neighbouring Greece, on the other hand, saw housing prices fall
by 5 per cent, making it, along with Ukraine (12 per cent
decline), among the weakest housing markets.
The Knight Frank Global House Price Index is compiled on a
quarterly basis using official government statistics or central
bank data where available. The index’s overall performance is
weighted by GDP on a purchasing power parity basis and the latest
quarter’s data is provisional pending the release of all the
countries’ results.
In the rankings of annual price rises, Australasia is top,
followed by the Middle East, Latin America, North America,
Europe, Africa, Asia, and finally, Russia.