Surveys
Investors' Mood Brightened In August – State Street
Investors turned more bullish – or at least less negative – about global markets during August, a measure of confidence shows.
A measure of investors’ buying and selling behaviour in financial
markets showed that they grew more optimistic in August compared
with July, brushing aside economic worries around inflation and
other forces – at least for the time being.
The Global Investor Confidence Index, produced by State Street, increased
to 107.3, up 5.1 points from July’s revised reading of 102.2. The
increase was led by a 20.4 point jump in the European ICI to
106.0. The North American ICI rose as well, up 2.1 points to
106.5. The Asian ICI, meanwhile, fell 0.9 points to 92.4.
“Despite the many potential headwinds, including rising inflation
concerns and energy security facing the European economy,
interestingly, European investors have moved from a risk averse
posture to a more neutral posture over the past month as markets
rallied through much of August,” Rajeev Bhargava, head of
Investor Behavior Research, State Street Associates, said. “Even
after the selloff over the past week, net flows by European
investors have been from developed to emerging market stocks,
which has driven up the confidence score. However, it is going to
be important to monitor whether the enthusiasm persists given
recent heightened volatility in equity markets on the back of
increasingly hawkish Fed speak.”
The index measures investor confidence by analysing the buying
and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index
assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite:
the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher
risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is
the level at which investors are neither increasing nor
decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index
differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the
actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional
investors.
Skyrocketing energy prices and fears about inflation, which have
prompted central banks to raise interest rates, have chilled
global markets. Earlier this week, Credit Suisse, for example,
said it was cutting its equities exposure to underweight.