Asset Management
Fed QE Wind-Down Shakes Investor Confidence - BoA Poll
Investor confidence in the global economy has plummeted this month as the quantative easing programme in the US officially comes to a close.
Investor confidence in the global economy has plummeted this
month as the quantitative easing programme in the US officially
comes to a close, a survey by Bank
of America Merrill Lynch reveals.
The US Federal Reserve has been pumping liquidity into the
world's largest economy over the last five years by buying a
total of $4 trillion's worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage
backed securities in instalments every month. In September it cut
its bond-buying programme down to $15 billion a month. Critics
say the stimulus has led to a stock market bubble and that it has
failed to address the major structural problems in the US economy
– namely high unemployment rates and mediocre growth rates.
An overall total of 220 panelists with $640 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 3 October to 9 October 2014.
Unsurprisingly, given the Fed policy move, investors feel much
less optimistic with only a net 32 per cent of respondents
expecting the global economy to strengthen over the next 12
months - the lowest reading in two years.
As a result investors have been reducing risk exposures. Cash
balances have risen to 4.9 per cent, while investment horizons
have shortened and equity overweights have fallen rapidly (down a
net 13 percentage points month-on-month). Underweights in
commodities have also risen, while sectors sensitive to the asset
classes like energy and materials have seen large moves to net
underweight positions.
At the same time investors have lost their appetite for emerging
markets and European equities. Both current positioning and
intentions for the next 12 months have turned negative or
neutral.
“Cash balances are high, but investors are retreating to
benchmark positions rather than staging an exodus from markets,”
said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA
Merrill Lynch Global Research.
Europe, in particular, has been put to the sword this month by
fund managers thanks largely to the lack of decision making by
the European Central Bank. Twenty-six percent of managers do not
expect the European Central Bank to initiate a programme of QE,
up from last month’s 19 percent. While only a net 16 per cent of
regional fund managers now expect the continent’s economy to
strengthen over the next year. This compares to a net 45 per cent
last month.
“With the European Central Bank ‘hope trade’ gone, performance in
European equities is reverting to fundamentals. As our view
remains downbeat, we continue to favor defensive dividend yield
stocks and expect any rallies in cyclical stocks to be short
lived,” added Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative
strategist.
Europe's fall though has been Japan's gain. A net 14 per cent of
asset allocators would most like to overweight the country’s
equities over the next year – 10 percentage points more bullish
than that for any other major market.
In contrast to other regions, Japanese fund managers’ inflation
expectations are on the rise. A net 46 per cent expect consumer
prices to climb in the next year, up from a net 18 percent last
month.
And global fund managers are now equally bearish on the Japanese
currency and the euro. This marks a striking shift from last
month, when the differential between the two was more than 20
percentage points.