One of the best-known multi-family offices in the US has weighed in on the Greek financial crisis.

The euro will rise if – as seems highly probable – Greece leaves the single currency bloc due to an impasse over its massive debt, according to the chief investment officer of Pitcairn, the US multi-family office.

The euro might not reach a level 1.2 against the dollar as seen eight years ago – the rate is around 1.104 at present – but there could be a rally in the currency if the drag effect of Greece’s drawn-out debt woes and wrangles over a debt bailout by other eurozone members are drawn to a close.

So argues Rick Pitcairn of the eponymous multi-family office, demonstrating how the Greek crisis has grabbed the attention of investors worldwide.

In a note, called Greece Surprises; Poses Little Long-term Threat to Momentum of Global Economies & Markets, Pitcairn wrote that he was surprised at last weekend’s “no” vote by Greek citizens to reject terms of a European Central Bank bailout package for Greece, which faces imminent bankruptcy.

“Applying our academia metaphor to currency trends, kicking the worst student out of class actually raises the average GPA of those who remain, so look for the euro to rise if Greece leaves. We don’t think the euro will rebound to the record levels of eight years ago, but it might well return to 120 and, as we pointed out in last quarter’s letter, that would bring positives for US corporate earnings,” Pitcairn said.

“The Greek electorate’s overwhelming rejection of the ECB’s latest bailout offer surprised many analysts, myself included, and there is now a much greater probability that Greece may leave the European Union,” he said.

“Interestingly, polls show that the Greek people strongly favor staying in the EU and most likely voted “no” based on assurances from the Socialist Greek government that a no vote would strengthen the country’s bargaining power, while not hastening expulsion from the EU at the hands of European bankers. Current German opinion seems to disagree with that expectation as the election may have steeled European resolve to put an end to Greece’s endless economic fecklessness,” Pitcairn continued.

“Margaret Thatcher famously quipped that the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money. Greece may now have arrived at the unhappy end of that road. We feel strongly that the Greek people will suffer much more than global economies if Greece leaves the euro,” Pitcairn said.

Pitcairn is a member, along with other family office businesses, of the Wigmore Association group of experts, from which members join insights over markets and geopolitics. “Our German [Wigmore] member told us `there is a quiet confidence in Germany that we could get along just fine without Greece in the Euro.’ That idea runs counter to the common perception that a Greek exit will cause the euro to rise and hurt German exports, which are critical to that country’s economy,” Pitcairn said.

“The last proposed agreement put forth by the ECB was actually a document of compromise and delay that gave Greece much of what it desired. I am still astounded the Greeks walked away from it. Such is the power of Greece’s political constituency,” he said.

“We should expect more market volatility as this plays out on a global media stage. The fact that we have not had a substantive market decline since 2011 and the reality that this particular crisis rekindles four-year old fears of global financial crises almost guarantee market gyrations. Still, from a financial risk perspective, we live in a much different world than four years ago. Fears of a global financial “contagion” in which Greece’s economic collapse sets off a domino effect in Portugal, Italy, and Spain are vastly overstated. The current buzz phrase for the Greek situation is that it has been “ring fenced,” meaning financial institutions have, by and large, already immunised themselves against this eventuality, as evidenced by current low default spreads of 1major European banks. That was not the case in 2011,” he said.