Real Estate

Economic Jitters Hit Luxury House Prices – Knight Frank

Amisha Mehta Deputy Editor 2 November 2016

Economic Jitters Hit Luxury House Prices – Knight Frank

Prime property performance has been dented by a host of uncertainties, including Brexit, the US presidential election and new taxes.

Many of the world’s luxury housing markets experienced sluggish price growth in the third quarter of 2016 amid mounting economic uncertainty, according to Knight Frank data.

Eighteen of the 37 cities tracked by Knight Frank’s Prime Global Cities Index saw their rate of price growth slide quarter-on-quarter in the three months to 30 September. These included Vancouver, Toronto, London, Sydney and Melbourne. All of these cities have seen new taxes imposed in the last year, either in the form of higher stamp duty, additional taxes for foreign buyers or the closing of tax loop holes for non-residents.

The index increased by 3.8 per cent in the year to 30 September 2016, down from 4.6 per cent last quarter.

Vancouver is still on top with annual price growth of 31.6 per cent. However, its third-quarter price growth was just 1.5 per cent, compared to an average of 8.1 per cent for the last four quarters. The city’s prime property market has been hit with a new 15 per cent tax for foreign buyers and sentiment is further being dampened by talk of another tax on vacant homes in 2017.

“Elections and referendums tend to provoke a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in the minds of buyers and this has been the case both in terms of the UK’s Brexit vote in June and the forthcoming US presidential election,” said Kate Everett-Allen, partner, international residential research at Knight Frank.

In London, Brexit-related uncertainty has served as a catalyst for overdue price reductions, the firm noted. Prime prices there fell 2.1 per cent in the year to the end of September.

Europe was second only to Russia and the CIS as the world’s weakest-performing world region. With an annual price growth of 5.5 per cent, Dublin is Europe’s strongest performer for the year, while Paris, logging a 3.8 per cent decline, is the continent’s weakest.

Looking ahead over the next year, currency movements are expected to drive international demand for prime property worldwide. As the dollar strengthens against other currencies, investors are increasingly looking to the US as a “safe haven”, said Knight Frank.

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