Investment Strategies

China, India Offer Wealth Of Opportunity - T Rowe Price

Rachel Walsh 10 March 2009

China, India Offer Wealth Of Opportunity - T Rowe Price

The effects of the liquidity shock and Asia's dependence on trade, are likely to continue to weigh on the region's prospects for some time. But parts of the region are still attractive, with some markets showing great prospects for decoupling, according toFrances Dydasco, portfolio manager of the Asia ex-Japan strategy at Baltimore-based investment managersT Rowe Price.

Ms Dydasco believes that China and India present an attractive long term opportunity, contrasting sharply with other large but developed markets in Asia, such as Korea and Taiwan which are more exposed to market slowdown.

China's fiscal strength has attracted favour from investors in recent months. From a top down perspective China appears very attractive compared to almost anywhere else globally. Whilst growth has slowed sharply, it should remain very robust in a global context.

But, she notes, China needs to wean itself off a dependence on exports and over-investment and focus more on boosting consumption. This process requires more government spending to improve social safety and this is not something that can be achieved overnight.

In the interim, some Chinese companies, particularly state owned enterprises, may disappoint the market on earnings as they are encouraged to share the pain of this transition. As a result, T Rowe Price favours private sector companies whether they are in the consumer sectors, media/internet or industrials etc.

T Rowe Price believes India is the most attractive bottom up market in Asia. The firm is disappointed by the Indian market underperformance relative to its Asian contemporaries. Bur, Ms Dydasco says, underperformance provides a real opportunity for long term investors to add high quality Indian companies to their portfolios at attractive valuations.

Many Indian companies now trade at valuations that assume they will either go bust or that the current crisis continues forever. T Rowe Price says this is unrealistic. The leading companies in India have access to capital and many will be able to consolidate their industries. Many will emerge from the downturn significantly stronger and Ms Dydasco says T Rowe Price will seek to identify those entities.

As a result, the firm will focus not only on consumption but also lower interest rate beneficiaries in the industrials, infrastructure and real estate sectors which have been out of favour recently.

From an economic perspective, Indian growth will slow and although the economy lacks China's fiscal flexibility it remains a large economy relatively sheltered from the collapse in global trade. T Rowe Price does not believe economic fundamentals justify the stockmarkets' underperformance.

T Rowe Price has $276.3 billion in assets under management as of 31 December, 2008. The organisation provides a broad array of mutual funds, sub-advisory services, and separate account management for individual and institutional investors, retirement plans, and financial intermediaries. The company also offers investment planning and guidance tools.

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