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Investment Sentiment Towards Europe Rises; Concern About Chinese Growth - JP Morgan Private Bank
Stephen Little
10 December 2013
While a majority of high net worth investors are more confident
about Europe compared to the beginning of the year, nearly one in three is
concerned about growth in China,
according to a new survey from . The survey revealed that 70 per cent of investors have
improved their sentiment towards Europe since the start of 2013, while 30 per
cent said that slower growth in China
was their biggest concern. The study was conducted as part of
the private bank’s recent Investment Insights series, between September to
October 2013, across 16 cities in Europe, with more than 600 ultra high net
worth and HNW investors. Respondents were polled on their views on key risks
for the next 12 months, investment sentiment and their anticipated portfolio
positioning. When asked which asset class will outperform
over the next 12 months, 48 per cent said equities. Meanwhile, 28 per cent of those polled believe private equity to
be the other asset class winner over the next year. The remaining 24 per cent
were split between hedge funds (9 per cent), commodities (6 per cent), high
yield (5 per cent) and core fixed income (4 per cent). UHNW and HNW investors in Spain, the UK,
France, and Switzerland were
found to have the most optimistic outlook towards equity markets, with 70 per
cent, 57 per cent, 48 per cent and 47 per cent, respectively. Half (50 per cent) of investors polled believe
that European markets will be the best equity market performer, in contrast to
the same time last year when sentiment towards the region was below 30 per
cent. According to the current survey, the US is still thought to be a strong equity market
to invest in next year (23 per cent), particularly for UK investors
(31 per cent). More than 45 per cent of
investors have seen an improvement in Europe and as a result added European
equities to their portfolios, with investors based in Munich (68 per cent),
Madrid (60 per cent) and Hamburg (59 per cent) having done so most
aggressively. “Investors are concerned after China’s growth slowdown this
summer, which was driven by tightening in social funding. But China is
now back on track to achieve 7 to 8 per cent growth during the next couple of
years, thanks to a recovery in economic activity in developed markets,"
said Cesar Perez, chief investment strategist for JP Morgan Private
Bank in EMEA. "Historically equity markets have performed well in
the early stages of rising rate environments, so we agree with investors and
see potential for this asset class to outperform over the next year. We also
believe the euro area to be at the onset of an improvement in hard data, such
as retail sales. Given higher operating leverage in Europe,
even a small increase in growth can translate into improving operating margins
and earnings next year," added Perez.