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China Is Already In A Credit Bubble, Says Survey Of World's Accountants
Tom Burroughes
4 December 2013
The drumbeat of noise from the financial community about how
China could be in a credit bubble that will end badly became louder yesterday
in a survey of accountants around the world. A Global Economics
Conditions Survey from ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified
Accountants) and the Institute of Management Accountants showed that that
respondents in China reported the tightest supply of growth capital in at least
two years, suggesting that the country's official and shadow banking sectors
are taking a significant hit. "In early 2013, GECS findings indicated that China had
avoided the 'hard landing' analysts had predicted for the past two years.
However, China's
problems are far from over. Credit rationing and fears about private and public
sector debt have continued to damage the Chinese recovery and the crunch
appears more prevalent on the mainland, while businesses in Hong Kong still
appear to have reasonable access to growth capital, Emmanouil Schizas, ACCA senior
economic analyst, said. Other firms, such as Rothschild Wealth Management, Pictet
Asset Management, and others, have voiced concerns about the amount of debt in
the country and the possible consequences. On the other side, a number of
wealth managers have praised what they see as the relatively bold economic and
business reform package unveiled by the ruling Communist Party recently. "As a result of these pressures, business confidence
has been falling throughout China
over the last six months, with concerns accelerating in the third quarter of
2013. Only 20 per cent of respondents in the mainland and 5 per cent of those
in Hong Kong reported confidence gains in Q3.
Although respondents in the mainland have been consistently more confident than
their colleagues in Hong Kong, their views may
soon begin to converge,” Jane Cheng, head of ACCA Hong Kong, said. She acknowledged that in other respects, however, financial
professionals are more optimistic longer-term. "However concerned they might be for their own
organisations, Chinese finance professionals are telling us they are optimistic
about the country's economic recovery and the authorities' ability to respond
to challenges. Following a sudden deterioration in the second quarter of 2013,
perceptions of the recovery are clearly on the rise again in mainland China, while respondents in Hong
Kong have recorded a full year of improving perceptions." The study showed that overall, 40 per cent of respondents
felt that the economy was improving or about to do so, up from 36 per cent in
the second quarter, and 52 per cent felt that conditions were deteriorating or
stagnating, down from 60 per cent previously. However, ACCA and IMA warn that
this optimism could prove short-lived if China's credit crunch persists
beyond the fourth quarter of 2013. Global outlook Collectively, across the world businesses were more
optimistic about the economy than they have ever been since the survey was
launched, and more confident about their own prospects than at any time since
the end of 2010. Schizas said: "What GECS shows us is that monetary
policy, real and potential, has now become a stronger influence on business
confidence than demand or business opportunities. That's a sure sign of trouble
brewing. The idea of a global recovery has taken hold worldwide and the
business community is generally optimistic about macro-economic developments
even as they doubt the prospects of their own organisations. This is not really
sustainable - and it is more likely that recovery expectations are going to
re-align themselves with that low business confidence, than vice versa.