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North American Investor Sentiment Pulls Up Global Confidence In November
Eliane Chavagnon
29 November 2013
Global
investor confidence took a tumble in November due to a
“relatively steep decline” in European sentiment, safety-netted by an
improved
outlook among North American and Asian individuals, according to the
Investor Confidence Index. This month the Global ICI dropped to
91.2, down 4.2 points from October’s revised reading of 95.5. By contrast, the North American ICI rose 3.2 points
to 89.4 over the revised October value of 86.2, while the Asian ICI rose 3.4
points to finish at 98.9 from an October revised value of 95.5. “Improved US economic data and consensus around the Yellen
nomination implying delayed tapering seem to be leading to an uptick in North
American investor confidence,” said Professor Kenneth Froot of Harvard University. “Investors in the US are still
aware of the challenges and overall confidence reflects this as sentiment has
yet to return to a more neutral stance.” Meanwhile, European confidence - which hit its highest level
since July 2007 last month - has “retrenched to near neutral territory driven
primarily by weaker sentiment for the UK,” added Jessica Donohue, head of
research and advisory at State Street Global Exchange. This month's reading stands in contrast to the one in September, when a fall in sentiment amongst US investors - declining 7.6 points to 104.5 from August’s reading of 112.1 - drove down the index. When the same thing happened last month, Professor Paul O’Connell noted that investors were aware that the long-term
fiscal policy of the US
remains to be negotiated. “The fact that the North
American ICI posted a record fall in the same month that the European ICI
posted its largest gain in almost three years tells you all you need to know
about how policy perceptions are changing between the two areas,” said Michael
Metcalfe, head of cross strategy research at State Street Global Markets. Meanwhile, in an investment note, Standish Mellon Asset Management recently said that the US Federal Reserve could justify tapering its $85 billion quantitative easing program at "any of its next three meetings," based on the recent economic data. January or March 2014 are "more likely than December 2013," it said.