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Societe Generale Warns Of Major China Risk
Sandra Kilhof
11 October 2013
The risk of China’s
economy collapsing and causing global contagion is becoming an increasing risk,
according to the French bank can pose a material liquidity
risk to the entire financial system. The new leadership seems well aware of the
debt risk and has started trying to deflate the credit bubble in a controlled
manner,” added the firm. As such, the Societe Generale analysts highlighted three key
steps that China’s
politicians must take in order to slowly deleverage the Chinese economy. This
includes efforts to slow new credit growth so the debt risk will accumulate at
a slower pace; speeding up financial innovations in order to lower the debt
service burden on corporates and alleviate some of the rollover pressure on
banks; and lastly, to start writing off non-performing assets so that the
economy can become more efficient and more able to pay back debt. However, the way back from the credit debt crisis will prove
to be a bumpy ride for the Chinese government, the report said. “The aforementioned strategy to deflate the credit bubble has
a chance of helping China
avoid a full-blown banking crisis in our view. Nevertheless, the fiscal cost
will not be low and the execution will be prone to downside risks. The deleveraging
process that China
will have to go through will be painful no matter what scenario unfolds,” read
the conclusion.