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SINGAPORE CONFERENCE: Investors Turn To Equities; US Fed "Taper" Casts Shadow
Tom King
WealthBriefingAsia
12 September 2013
A large
turnout braved early morning downpours to make their way to Raffles Hotel for
WealthMatters Singapore 2013. Coutts & Co was the headline sponsor for the
event. A selection of
high-profile speakers from the wealth management industry discussed a broad range
of subjects from whether equities will be the most important asset class in 2014
to client experience and reporting and perhaps one of the hottest topics at
present: how regulatory pressures affect wealth management models in Asia. Such a debate
happened against a background of some sharp market movements in recent weeks,
such as the sharp fall in the value of the Indian rupee and concerns that, as
the US Federal Reserve turns off the monetary taps amid signs of stronger US
growth, this will force some countries to painfully adjust, if only in the short
run. In the first
session of the morning, the panel ruminated on the prospects for equities next
year. Andrew Barrett, managing director
at Citi Private Bank, - he kicked off the discussion - held the view that 2014
would see a shift, as economies normalise, back into equities, along with
potential interest rate rises in 2014/15. Barrett also said
global growth will continue to climb, albeit at a more sedate pace. He thought
there was a general consensus that this view is widely held. However, he also
mentioned that the consensus of views was, perversely, also in itself a
potential risk. Andrew Hendry,
who is managing director for M & G Investments, a firm with $350 billion
under management, said the equity dividend strategy many investors have
followed and continue to rely on for yield has now become an overly expensive
approach. Hendry said that better value and robust performance could be found
in unfamiliar places such as European small-cap stocks where there have
recently been solid returns. He stated that the emerging markets in his view
are currently still too precarious for him. The Bank of
Singapore chief economist Richard Jerram held a differing view to the others on
the panel. He is convinced that the US Federal Reserve will begin tapering soon
– reducing its quantitative easing programme - and that the US Treasury bond market
could be the most important space to watch in 2014. With regard to the equities
markets for 2014 he was only keen on the established markets. Jerram was also
particularly bearish on the medium to long term prospects for gold mentioning a
figure as low as $900. Wrapping up
the first morning session, Marco Kaster, who is investment director at Stanley
Gibbons Asia, pointed to impressive growth numbers and lack of any volatility
as a reason to look at rare stamps, coins and other premium collectables. These
assets should not necessarily replace equities in 2014 but complement them, he
said. Kaster shared
with the audience that during the global financial crisis the GB 250 rare stamp
index increased by a whopping 38 per cent. (Editor's note: Further summaries of panel debates at the event will be added to this website in due course. On behalf of ClearView Financial Media, thanks to all who attended this informative and enjoyable event.) 