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UBS Wealth Management Is Cautiously Cheerful About Japan, Loves US Stocks
Tom Burroughes
3 June 2013
UBS Wealth Management is retaining a modestly bullish stance
on Japanese equities as it monitors how well the reflationary impact of “Abenomics”
works out, while the Zurich-listed firm is taking its most upbeat position on
the US
equity market. Japanese equities have rallied, according to some
yardsticks, by more than 50 per cent over the past six months – a period
coinciding with the election of the pre-reflation administration of Shinzo Abe.
(However, Japanese stocks have suffered a sharp correction in recent days.) “It may be years before we can fully judge any long-term
success of Abenomics, but over our tactical investment horizon we believe the
combined actions of the government and BOJ position and by adopting an underweight position in
Australian equities, which could suffer from any further slowdown in China,” he
said. Friedman explained that UBS has decided to lock in some profits made on
US high-yield debt. “We expect the US economy to help deliver solid
revenue growth for US companies, while the improving housing market should prop
up domestic demand and the outlook for financials. In terms of valuation, despite a 16 per cent
run this year, we believe there is approximately 6 per cent upside in the coming
six months, and just under 20 per cent upside to fair value on a cyclically
adjusted earnings yield basis, given current trends in inflation and real
interest rates,” he said. Among other positions, UBS Wealth Management is overweight
the US dollar, while the Australian dollar – once a darling of currency
investors – is the least preferred currency of the Swiss bank. A month ago, UBS
took an overweight stance on the US dollar against the Swiss franc and
continues to be bearish on the euro.