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Fidelity Worldwide Investment Managers Give Cautious Thumbs-Up To Japan Reflation
Tom Burroughes
19 July 2013
Japan-focused portfolio managers at Fidelity Worldwide
Investment have been generally cheered by the decision of the Asian country’s
central bank to aggressively reflate its economy but sounded a note of caution
as to how rapidly this move will affect growth and markets. Last week, the Bank of Japan held its first monetary policy
meeting under the leadership of the new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Its moves to
ease monetary policy were, according to much market commentary, generally
bolder than expected. The BoJ shifted its policy target from the unsecured
overnight call rate to the monetary base, which it committed to doubling within
the next two years. It will also significantly
increase purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds and extend the
maturities of JGBs it can buy. The central bank will also boost purchases of
exchange-traded funds and real estate investment trusts. “The BoJ’s actions are undeniably exciting and will continue
to generate much comment as markets watch to see how the repercussions play
out,” Alex Treves, head of equities, Japan, at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, said in a note
from the firm. He said questions remained, however, on how far the recently
elected Japanese government can succeed in pushing through reforms to accompany
monetary easing. “To what extent will corporates use current tailwinds to
regain competitiveness both at home and overseas? Inflation will not obviously
mitigate the productivity challenges in the former, nor - in the absence of the
right products - the degree to which Korean and other manufacturers have gained
share in the latter. And, crucially, to what extent are individual corporate
management teams motivated by the profitability of the companies that they run?”
Treves said. “Domestic reflation will be a much more powerful and
sustainable story if it is accompanied by reform, and by a broad-based
improvement in returns which are shared with equity investors,” Treves added. His colleague, Jun Tano, portfolio manager at the FF Japan Smaller
Companies Fund, said: “Although the BOJ’s move this time was bolder than we
expected, the stock market has already discounted this regime change to a large
extent. As a result, we have seen strong gains by real estate developers and
non-bank financials since the beginning of this year, from which FF Japan
Smaller Companies Fund has so far benefited.” “Going forward, the key check point is whether real demand
will follow the monetary growth trend. I am carefully evaluating the potential
headroom for each company’s earnings growth and how much of it is reflected in
the current valuations,” Tano said. June-Yon Kim, who manages the Fidelity Japan Fund, FAST
Japan Fund, said: “With this backdrop, we are likely to see further weakening
in the yen, which will be supportive of continued positive earnings revisions. Although market sentiment appears frothy and a
short term pull back would be unsurprising, the tailwind for the Japanese
market has definitely strengthened overnight.”