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Monkeys Outperform Fund Managers: Cass Business School UK
Stephen Little
4 April 2013
The kind of purely random stock-picking actions of monkeys
would have delivered more returns than an equivalent market
capitalisation-weighted index over the last 40 years, a report by London-based Cass Business
School and consultants
Aon Hewitt has found. In
the study, a computer was programmed to randomly pick and weight stocks in a
1,000-strong sample, which "effectively simulated the stock-picking
abilities of a monkey". The process was then repeated 10 million times. The study was based on monthly US share data from 1968 to 2011 and
found nearly all 10 million indices weighted by chance delivered vastly
superior returns to the market capitalisation approach. “One
of the implications of our work is that we should perhaps be benchmarking our
fund managers against monkeys rather than against a cap-weighted index!” said co-author
of the study, Professor Andrew Clare. The
findings will add a twist to the regular debate about the benefits or costs of
active and passive fund management over the long term, particularly in the case
of large, liquid markets. John Belgrove, senior partner at Aon Hewitt, said the study shed
fresh light on the role of fund managers. "Inherent weaknesses in cap-weighted investment
strategies are well documented and the long-run results of the 'monkeys' are likely
to cause some surprise. The good news for investors is that there is more implementation
choice than ever to consider when selecting a preferred long-term portfolio
construction and fund manager style,” Belgrove added.