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2013 Looks Positive For EM Debt As Investors Chase Yield - Western Asset
Sally Ling
28 January 2013
Emerging market debt ended 2012 as
the world’s best-performing asset class and ongoing hunger for yield creates “a
compelling outlook for 2013” according to Western Asset, a subsidiary of Legg
Mason. “With global central banks committed
to keeping interest rates low, increased demand for higher yielding assets has
pushed record levels of capital into emerging market debt, driving sovereign and corporate
yields toward historic lows,” Robert Abad, an emerging markets portfolio
manager at Western Asset, said in a statement. Against this backdrop, Abad
highlights the growing high yield emerging market sector, which includes corporate borrowers
as well as lower-rated sovereigns such as Argentina, Ukraine and Venezuela, and
frontier markets including Sri Lanka, Mongolia and Belize. He observes that the
rapid expansion of the asset class over the past few years has occurred as
traditional drivers of returns - external sovereign spread compression and
rallying US Treasury yields - have largely run their course. On the sovereign side, Abad says emerging market high yield offers an opportunity to “play the improvement story from the
beginning,” with significant capital gains available as frontier markets move
up to emerging status. From a valuation perspective, Abad says investors can
get higher yields and significant spread pick-up via higher-quality emerging market high-yield corporates versus lower-rated US equivalents. Sounding a note of caution, Abad says that strong
global liquidity conditions have played a critical role in the trajectory of emerging markets over the past decade, allowing sovereigns and companies unfettered access to
low-cost capital. He warns that investors should not fall into the trap of
assuming emerging market high yield functions like a faster-growth version of the more
mature US market. Without restraint, he says, investors “risk chasing yield
into a reversal in global liquidity.” Despite this, Abad believes the asset
class should continue to benefit from growing recognition that balance sheet
strength and policy flexibility in emerging markets will be more supportive of
debt than equities.