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South Korea's Won To Stay Strong Currency In 2013 - JP Morgan Private Bank
Tom Burroughes
15 January 2013
South
Korea’s sizzling currency, the won, should
be well supported in foreign exchange markets this year as the country’s large
current account surplus and inflows to its bond markets give it strength, argued
JP Morgan Private Bank in a series of forex forecasts. The Asian country’s current-account surplus rose to a record
high in November last year, taking its total for the first 11 months of 2012 to
well over central bank forecasts and boosting the currency. The surplus was
$6.88 billion in November, a record. And the currency has benefited. The won reached a 17-month
high against the dollar last Friday because low interest rates in countries
such as the US made the Asian currency attractive, reports said. The won
fetched around KRW1.056 against the dollar on Monday. Last week, it hit the
KRW1.060 mark; there have been rumours of central bank intervention to cap it. “The KRW in 2013. As we
expect this to be in the context of a wider band, we also look for more
cyclicality in USDCNY,” Yates said. More generally, Yates said that this year will see more
loose monetary policy but with fewer downside risks for the global economy,
arguing that growth in the US
and China
will improve while some of the risks of the debt-ridden eurozone have abated. “This environment means three things for currencies:
investors will continue to look for yield; they will be more comfortable in
moving along the risk spectrum; and a currency’s fundamentals will matter more,”
she said.