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Happy Days Could Be Here Again - So Get Ready, Says HSBC Private Bank
Tom Burroughes
24 September 2012
There is a sense of more optimistic economic news to come in
2013, which should bode well for equities, HSBC Private Bank said in one of its
regular investment notes today. The private bank is staking a neutral/overweight stance on
equities, is neutral on fixed income, hedge funds and commodities, and takes a neutral/overweight
stance on property and is overweight private equity. The stance is broadly consistent with views from other major
investment houses in recent days, such as shown by last week’s monthly global
survey of fund managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “While the current slowdown is likely to continue in the
coming months, we believe that the global economic outlook will start to improve
in the coming quarters. We believe that
the improvement in the risk backdrop is likely to support equity markets over
the next 12 months, especially given still-attractive valuations,” Willem Sels,
UK head of investment strategy, HSBC Private Bank, said in the note. “Conversely, we expect demand for cash and safe haven bonds
to decrease, implying gradually higher yields going forward, particularly given
rising long term inflation expectations,” Sels said. Explaining his more upbeat approach, Sels argues that there
is now a “concerted and synchronised easing in monetary policy across the
globe, which has been building for a number of months”. “We know that these measures have a delayed impact on
growth, but they do eventually work. By contrast some policymakers were still
(erroneously) tightening policy in the first half of 2008, exacerbating the
crisis we saw later that year,” he said. “So in spite of the well-documented obstacles, we still
face, both economic and political, we sense a whiff of optimism for a recovery
of global growth and investor sentiment in 2013. In these circumstances, investors
can start to add risk to their portfolios by taking advantage of any dips in
equity markets to build their positions between now and the year end,” he said.