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7,000 Cuts Forecast At Australian Banks As Global Carnage Mounts
Tara Loader Wilkinson
18 January 2012
Australian banks could axe 7,000 jobs over
the next two years as part of radical cost-cutting measures to help them survive the global slowdown, according to
Sydney-based analysts at UBS. Most of these cuts relate to the nation’s
big four banks which handle an estimated 85 per cent of home loans in the
country, comprising Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, Australia and New Zealand
Banking Group and National Australia Bank, said the UBS analysts in a note this
week. Lenders
are forecast to reduce total staff numbers by 3.9 per cent to 172,000 from 179,000,
analysts Jonathan Mott, Chris Williams and Adam Lee said in the note. Those figures don’t include ANZ’s
Asian staff, they said. “We
expect the banks to be heavily focused on their cost bases. Solid reductions in
headcount and discretionary costs are anticipated as banks react to the lower
growth environment." Like many of their global peers, Australian
banks hired aggressively during the boom years and are now being forced to pare back. Since
2002, Australian bank staff employee numbers have soared 27 per cent from 141,000 a decade ago, to 179,000 today (excluding ANZ Asia). As the banks rapidly re-staffed from
2002, employee expenses have grown at a 7 per cent compound annual growth rate, said
the report. “Staff costs are the
biggest contributor to group expenses for all the banks, at 58 per cent of the
total cost base. This is an area which will need to be targeted by the banks as
they address their expense levels. Going forward we are
anticipating some solid reductions in headcount over the next two years down to
172,000 (ex ANZ Asia). This should help absorb underlying wage increases
keeping total staff expenditure growth to around 1 per cent per annum,” the analysts
wrote. Coupled with the West The news
supports the well-voiced opinion that the Asia-Pacific region is not as
decoupled from the turmoil being felt by the rest of the world as may have initially
been thought. The third biggest bank in Australian by market value ANZ, is
expected to cut as many as 900 jobs, according to reports yesterday, starting
with 130 in the Melbourne-based retail and commercial operations. It is understood the bank's offshore operations, which centre on Asia, will be unscathed. A spokespersons said: "These changes reflect continued belt-tightening in the Australian business given the more subdued economic environment and the continued pressure funding costs are placing on margins. We expect that there may be further changes during 2012 but there are no other specific plans to announce at this stage." A
spokesperson for NAB said: "In any workforce of more than 44,000 people
worldwide, staffing numbers will fluctuate in various parts of the business at
times due to the completion of programs, outsourcing of some projects and
continuing focus on efficiency but NAB always works to try and redeploy people
within the business wherever it is possible." A
spokesperson for Commonwealth Bank said: “Commonwealth Bank has a long term strategic focus on
productivity, and, to that end, is continuously looking for ways to use
technology and process improvement to enhance customer satisfaction while
increasing efficiency. This may result in redundancies occurring from time to
time in some areas, while in other areas more staff may be needed. There is no
target or short-term plan for major staff reductions.” Westpac, which has been said to be looking at 1,000 redundancies, did not immediately return
calls for comment. Although the headline figures do not
look good, Australian banks, compared to their Western peers, are actually
surprisingly healthy. “Aussie banks (are) some of the
world’s best performing. They are winners by default,” said UBS analysts.
“Although most Australian bank investors would consider 2011 a challenging
year, with prices down 7 per cent and total returns around zero (post
dividends), these numbers shine brightly relative to global banks. In fact the
Australian banks were some of the best performing in the world, just behind the
Canadians. However, the question remains - will the tortoise continue to beat
the hare in 2012?” said UBS analysts. UBS
has a neutral rating on ANZ and Commonwealth and a buy rating on NAB and
Westpac. Investment banking stagnates Nearly all banks, especially those
with investment banking arms are facing heavy job cuts. Investment banking has
suffered from a lacklustre deal flow, hampered by the volatile markets
over the last three years which show no sign of calming down. Last week the UK government owned Royal
Bank of Scotland confirmed plans for 3,500 jobs in its global banking and
markets businesses over the next three years and is exploring sale
options for its cash equities, corporate broking, equity capital
markets and M&A businesses. France’s Societe Generale said it was looking at cutting around
1,600 from its corporate and investment bank, around 13 per cent of the unit’s
staff. As well as the
uncertain economic environment Switzerland’s UBS and Credit Suisse have also
been hurt by the global clampdown on tax havens. Last year UBS said it wanted
to scale back its investment banking operations by 1,600 jobs, while Credit
Suisse announced plans to cut 1,500 staff globally,in addition to the 2,000 it
had already decided to lay off. This equates to slashing 7 per cent of its
global workforce which numbers around 50,700 people, in a bid to save SFr2
billion ($2.2 billion) by 2013. In August, global
lender HSBC said it will shed 30,000 jobs worldwide by the end of 2013, as part
of a drive to reduce costs by as much as $3.5 billion over the next two years
to prepare for new, tougher capital requirements and a squeeze on margins from
developments such as compliance costs and rising salaries. Across the pond Bank of America Merrill Lynch is in the midst of
cutting 7,000 jobs, of which 3,500 are believed to already have gone. Only a relatively small number are expected to come from
Merrill Lynch. Wealth management not immune Most of the cuts are being made in the loss-making investment banking businesses, as a result of the stagnant deal market. However the fortunes of the wealthy grew by a fifth in 2010, and private banking services are still in some demand. Some banks, like UBS for example, are scaling up their wealth divisions while simultaneously paring back their investment banking arms. But wealth is not immune. The turmoil in the markets is spooking wealthy investors and there is not as much demand for riskier fee-paying products. High net worth clients are not as trusting as they once were, plus the lack of deals means less liquidity to go round. Banks are being forced to cut wealth hiring budgets. Coutts in the UK, for example, last week confirmed plans to shed between 80-100 roles in coming months. Others are simply putting hiring on ice. "It is going to be a very difficult year," said one senior Hong Kong-based headhunter working in wealth management. "I expect we will be down 50 per cent on last year's (revenue) levels. Banks are like rabbits in the headlights in the moment - no-one will sign off on a decision."