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Boom Times Return For Commercial Property - Jones Lang LaSalle

Joseph Milton

6 May 2011

This year will see commercial real estate around the globe perform at its highest level since the boom times of 2007, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s new Global Market Perspective report.

The latest positive forecast comes after the US-based real estate services company reported in March that the global property market had recovered sharply over the previous year, underlined by a 60 per cent year-on-year increase in cross-border global investment.

In its new report, the firm says global direct commercial real estate investment volumes have shot up by 44 per cent year-on-year, and full-year volumes are now on track to top $440 billion, representing 35-40 per cent growth on 2010 levels, and the highest volume since 2007.

“Markets are showing remarkable resilience, despite the shocks of the disaster in Japan, the turmoil in the Middle East and a slightly less optimistic outlook for the global economy,” said Arthur de Haast, head of Jones Lang LaSalle’s international capital group. “The continuing global real estate recovery is characterised by strengthening investment markets, increasing corporate optimism and robust price growth for prime assets across multiple markets.”

The report says the importance of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations to the real estate capital markets has grown significantly since 2007, and will continue to do so. BRICs now account for 13 per cent of global volumes, compared with just 2 per cent of investment trades in 2007. Collectively, the BRIC nations are now third in terms of global volumes, bested only by the US and the UK.

Among the BRICs, Brazil was the star performer - it overtook China to become the fifth most active investment market in the first quarter of 2011, in part because of a development boom in São Paulo, now one of the world’s most dynamic office markets.

Global highs in rental growth of over 30 per cent year-on-year in Hong Kong and Singapore meant the Asia Pacific region continues to have some of the world’s strongest office leasing markets, said the report. Loan-to-value ratios in the region are around 60 to 65 per cent. The report says speculative construction in Asia Pacific is peaking, but Jones Lang LaSalle expects demand to be strong enough to absorb the additional new office space.

Speculative construction in Europe is increasing, particularly in Moscow, Paris and London, although debt remains a serious problem in the region, particularly for non-prime assets.

Meanwhile, an improving debt situation and increasing liquidity in the US have led to a resurging commercial mortgage-backed securities market, but speculative construction remains stagnant.

Accelerating rental growth for prime assets - currently close to 8 per cent year-on-year across 22 major global office markets - and falls in vacancy rates (currently at 14.2 per cent) should combine to make 2011 a good year for landlords, said Jones Lang LaSalle.