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Collins Stewart Adds Voice To Chorus Against "Double-Dip" Fears

Tom Burroughes

19 August 2010

Yet another firm, in the shape of Collins Stewart Wealth Management, has come out with the comment that the chance of a “double-dip” recession, while not remote, is unlikely.

“The odds seem stacked against a double dip this time around. This continues to be a remarkably normal recovery in an abnormal cycle. Economic growth should continue, equities are cheap, corporate earnings are strong...and we perceive excellent opportunities in many markets,” Paul Meader, a member of the firm’s asset allocation committee, said in an investment commentary.

Credit Suisse Private Banking, Fidelity International and Schroders have all said that the chance of another slide into recession is unlikely; Barclays Wealth has pegged the chance of the UK having such a double-dip recession as one in three.

Some of the current uncertainties, Meader writes, are caused by the unusually blunt comments from central bankers about the sluggish economic outlook.

“It’s been a busy ten days for central bankers, with a blizzard of press conferences and statements. Normally such matters would not merit much attention outside of the arcane world of economists but an interesting theme began to develop as the meetings unfolded: a note of caution on the global economic outlook,” he said.

“Until a couple of years ago, central bankers used to speak a language all of their own which required a codebook to decipher but today they speak clearly and, on occasions, are forthright. We’ve heard nothing quite so explicit for a while and so it is worth taking note of their words. In reality, they told us little that we didn’t already know from observing the data,” he continued.

However, despite such comments, Meader said the economy was witnessing “a remarkably normal recovery in an abnormal cycle”.

“Our central case remains that growth is entering the self-sustaining phase, that policy actions will remain successful but that interest rates will have to remain low for a long time, reflecting the fragility of the Western capital markets. Against such an outlook, equities are becoming an increasingly cheap asset class both in an historical context and against the alternatives such as bonds,” said Meader.

He said Collins Stewart WM has not reduced equity risk in client portfolios, as the firm’s “central case” was that economic growth will continue, while equities are cheap and corporate earnings are strong.