Print this article
Henderson Smiles On US Real Estate, Cautious On Asia As Monetary Policy Tightens
Tom Burroughes
3 June 2010
The US real estate market looks one of the most promising global bricks-and-mortar investment areas even though significant debt issues linger, according to Patrick Sumner, manager of the Henderson Global Property Companies fund. In general, the property market is in the relatively early stages of a recovery, but of all markets, the US looks the most attractive, Sumner said in a note. He also highlighted some lag by the performance of Asian markets this year, having put in a strong performance previously. In general, property markets have languished worldwide. The IPD Global Property Index lost ground in 2009 from a year earlier, at -7.3 per cent, according to Investment Property Databank. The Henderson manager must be hoping to continue a recent run of strong performance. As of end-May, the fund chalked up a one-year return of 45.8 per cent, although over three years, it lost 36.1 per cent. Shares on the fund were at a 11 per cent discount to net asset value as of 1 June. “The star performer so far this year has been the US, with a total return of 25 per cent in sterling. The UK by contrast has lost 9 per cent, the rest of Europe 11 per cent, dragged down in part by the currency, while the Asia Pacific region is more or less flat. However, the effect of currency has had a marked effect, with sterling losing 11 per cent of its value against the dollar,” he said. “The US property market is much larger and more diverse than the UK’s, but the economy is clearly recovering at a different pace. The investment market indicators show the same sort of performance as in the UK, and tenant demand is similarly weak, except in the main financial office market of Manhattan. But, just like London, the activity is driven more by reorganisation and a shortage of new office space than by any strong employment growth – so far,” Sumner continued. Sumner said he expected modest growth in the net asset value and income growth of European REITs over the next two years, but he said Henderson is attracted by the current 10-15 per cent discounts to NAV in share pricing and some dividend yields of around 6 per cent from quality names. On Asia, Sumner said more restrictive monetary policy by the Chinese authorities, designed to curb rapid price rises, had caused “significant under-performance” by Hong Kong property stocks this year – 12.5 per cent below the global index. “Only Japan has kept pace with the global average, catching up after a miserable 2009,” he said.