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Car Sales Could Boost Asian Economy - Fidelity
Knud Noelle
22 September 2009
The burgeoning Asian service sector could boost the region’s stock markets, as local consumers start to spend more, according to investment manager Fidelity International. The investment firm said that the region has a relatively low ratio of debt to GDP, while at the same time having economic stimulus packages worth $787 billion, thus putting consumers in the position to consider greater discretionary spending. “In the year to date Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities are up by around 50 per cent; on a three year basis, the region is up over 20 per cent. One good reason why this could be sustainable can be found in the services sector,” said Catherine Yeung, associate director, Asia Pacific ex-Japan equities at the firm. “As per capita income rises, the share of GDP from services also goes up (namely as Asian incomes rise, demand for services grows at a faster rate). We can see this benefitting a number of service industries such as tourism, notably hotels, travel agencies and airlines, and leisure companies, particularly companies providing gaming and food and beverages.” Ms Yeung added that car sales across the region have been rising in the year to date, making this another sector of higher end discretionary spending. While China has already overtaken the UK in terms of new car sales, sales are expected to rise even further. Currently, Ms Yeung explained, only three in 100 homes own a car in China. She added: “The main reason we expect more cars to be purchased in China is that it’s GDP per capita this year is $3,500.” “Analysis says that, once this level has been breached, discretionary spending kicks in. Cars could well appear on more and more Chinese shopping lists.” She expects other countries in the region to follow this Chinese trend: “The potential for auto sales in the region over the next ten years could be huge. Ms Yeung believes that the fundamentals for a sustained rally are in place, with the value of deals already being past the total for 2008 at around $112 billion. She said that, with domestic and US investors having placed money into the region's markets, liquidity is good. “And we are seeing more anecdotal signs of greater confidence from domestic investors – for example, previously Taiwanese companies would list in Hong Kong or Singapore but now they consider listing in Taiwan instead,” she added. However, regardless the positive outlook, she said that investors ought to always remember the fact that the region’s economies still rely on the fortunes of the global consumer. Nevertheless, GDP growth in the region is expected to be about twice as high as in the Western hemisphere, reaching over six per cent: “The structural story in Asia remains intact and the region is in a fortunate position whereby government, corporate and personal balance sheets are healthy,” she said.