“The underlying trend in the economy appears to be one of gradual contraction, thanks in part to an ongoing downtrend in retail spending. We’re expecting a technical recession in the UK in the first half of this year, albeit one that’s not as bad as first feared. The fall in wholesale gas prices should help consumer bills fall by the summer limiting further damage on consumer spending. It’s clear that consumers are still out spending, high streets are still busy, and restaurants are full.  However, we would caution on how long these last, household incomes continue to be squeezed and as interest rate rises filter down to the real economy, we suspect a slowdown will continue.”