Global Investor Confidence Dipped On Eve Of Brexit Poll In June - State Street

Tom Burroughes

30 June 2016

Investment confidence around the world declined slightly in June from May, according to data drawn before global markets were hit by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, according to State Street.

The US-headquartered bank’s monthly Investor Confidence Index declined to 105.9, down by 0.1 points from May’s revised reading of 106. The North American ICI declined further in June by 2.0 points to 105.9, while the Asian ICI rose from 112.3 to 113.4 and the European ICI increased by 3.5 points to 100.3, ahead of the EU referendum held on 23 June. (The cut-off for the index was 22 June.)

The Investor Confidence Index measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analysing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors. The index assigns a precise meaning to changes in investor risk appetite: the greater the percentage allocation to equities, the higher risk appetite or confidence. A reading of 100 is neutral; it is the level at which investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. The index differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, of institutional investors.

“The confidence of European investors rose in June, ahead of the UK’s EU referendum. This helps to explain why markets have moved so wildly following the vote to leave. Investors were not reducing risk sufficiently ahead of the vote,” said Michael Metcalfe, senior managing director and head of global macro strategy, State Street Global Markets.