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HSBC Gets Vote Of Confidence Over Strategy

Tom Burroughes

21 September 2015

Berenberg, the Germany-headquartered bank, has raised its recommendation on , the Hong Kong/London-listed bank, to “buy”, saying that most investors haven’t given sufficient credit to changes and restructuring at the bank.

The bank, which provides private banking as part of its offerings, has shed booking centres and cut staffing numbers, among other moves. The bank has also said it is reviewing whether to move its corporate headquarters out of the UK, citing fears about the country’s possible exit from the European Union, as well as by government bank levies. Among other developments, HSBC has agreed to sell its Brazil business. Group-wide profits in the first half of 2015 rose, although private bank profits declined.

“For us, the change in risk appetite has been missed by the market. This supports our view that the dividend yield of 6.5 per cent is sustainable and gives us confidence in tangible book value. Management now needs to show it has control of the cost base and deliver on its cost promises for the second half of the year. We see this, alongside the promise of flat risk-weighted assets, driving the re-rating of HSBC,” Berenberg said in a note.

The note stated that the recent sell-off in HSBC shares mirrors is a similar pattern to events of 1997/8. During this period HSBC lagged European banks by 50 per cent because of fears of how the Asia crisis of the late 90s would hit it, but those shares outperformed by 86 per cent once investors realised all banks were exposed to emerging-market risk. HSBC’s valuation then bottomed at a price/earnings ratio of 11.4 times; the bank now is at 9.1 times P/E.

The note also said it expects cost growth to be about 70 basis points below revenue growth in 2015.