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Greece Snubs Eurozone Austerity Measures - Wealth Managers' Reactions
Tom Burroughes
27 January 2015
Greece has a new, left-wing government in the form of the Tsipras Syriza party, led by Alexis Tsipras. The party has vowed to push back at austerity measures insisted upon by eurozone policymakers as a condition of receiving bailouts to save the debt-laden Greek economy. Greece has had almost five years of economic measures to try and deal with its fiscal position, but these have proven intensely unpopular in the Southern European nation. The fear remains that the eurozone could be torn asunder if Greece were to leave the single currency bloc – the so-called “Grexit” option. The euro has already come under pressure, as fears grow that other countries chafing at the discipline of being inside a single currency will try to change any controls. Here is a selection of views from wealth managers, economists and other financial industry players on what the Greek situation means: Andrew Belshaw, head of investments at Western Asset, Legg Mason's largest global fixed income manager. “The Greek vote will hardly provide a reason for markets to rally but most capital markets had already priced this in. However, the vote is definitive and capital markets will ultimately respond in some way to this fact. I find it hard to believe, given Draghi's clear desire to facilitate a monetary environment for investment and growth, that the Greek electorate cannot see the reason to balance the pain of austerity against the potential for growth. They need to buy into the liquidity injections on offer and, in my opinion, must tap into the largest European stimulus ever designed. "Draghi has provided a reason for optimism but the mechanism for Greece to be involved is predicated on compliance by everyone in government in Greece. After a weekend for investors and asset managers to analyse the scale of QE, they now have to take on the implications of this vote. The danger lies with the repercussions of the vote having an impact now, while the sheer scale of the QE does not kick in until March. “Our markets are skittish enough but as an investor I predict normality and stability, given that in my opinion Greece wants to stay in the EU. The path to that scenario will not be without its moments, but they are moments, which I believe Europe can deal with - Europe has a central bank that has bite. As for this vote, I am inclined to buy on weakness.” Alan Wilde, head of fixed income, global at Baring Asset Management. Paras Anand, head of European equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment. “With the serious prospect of victory looming, Syriza has repeatedly stated a desire to remain within the single currency. Whilst this is far from guaranteed, what will be potentially attractive to other member states will be the party's determination to address vested interests and clamp down on corruption and the grey economy. In order to establish a stronger foundation, the Greek economy must move toward a broader base of tax revenue. This will only happen if a deep-seated culture of avoidance is addressed. The emphasis of key creditors within the eurozone has already shifted from austerity to reform and Syriza may find greater support from the mainstream European parties than its 'radical' tag would suggest. “The election victory may be read as an indication that populist parties across the region will have the same success, compounding the threat to a 'fragile' currency union. I would challenge this observation. It is clear that Syriza’s core political agenda will fall way short of the 'hopes' of the more radical factions within the party. Also, the challenges facing the Greek economy remain uniquely challenging within the region. Whilst Greek borrowing costs rose substantially from the second half of last year, we have continued to see spreads tighten across most of the economies that were deemed to be vulnerable during the sovereign crisis. “Arguably at the forefront of most investors' minds is the risk of contagion. The outcome of the Greek election is the latest but will certainly not be the last negative focal point for European commentators. It is, however, worth taking a step back and reflecting that the financial sector across Europe is in a significantly more robust position today than it was at the last 'peak' of the sovereign crisis in 2011. “Over the last few years we have seen the major financial institutions across the region rebuild capital, reduce cross-holdings and undergo a rigorous stress test, which implies that the ability for the sector to absorb shock is now substantially greater. That is not to say that tail risks within the eurozone have evaporated entirely, it is just to emphasise that the degree to which localised issues have the capacity to materially and immediately alter the risk premium throughout the region has clearly reduced. To that end, it suggests that returns are more likely to be driven by fundamentals going forward to a greater extent than has been the case at various (sometimes extended) points over the last few years.”
“The Greek election result is only the second act of a week that has exposed some of the structural problems of the eurozone, from the delay in taking quantitative easing action to the challenge of having a monetary union without a political union. The new Greek government now faces a tough negotiator in Merkel Mario Draghi's ability to surprise the markets with the level of QE does not count: because he was always going to surprise!
“The Greek result is a great paradox in the sense that we are told the Greek people are voting against austerity measures but wish to remain within the eurozone. In the next few weeks ‘headline risk’ is going to be high as Syriza seek to re-negotiate bailout terms with the Troika. Germany has reiterated this morning that the Greek people have a legal contract with the Troika to receive more funds but if they break this and by implication seek to re-negotiate the terms of debt repayment, no more funds will be available in March and this will test the new Greek government’s resolve. Brinkmanship is the name of the game.”
“As largely expected, Syriza has emerged as the largest party in last night's Greek elections. Its mandate from the electorate is, in essence, to renegotiate the terms of membership with the eurozone and free the economy from a seemingly endless period of contraction through restructuring its debt obligations. Whilst I would imagine that much will be made of a renewed threat to the euro project as a result of this outcome, I would argue that there are reasons to believe that the impact for European investors and even for economic growth across the region may be more modest than feared.