Industry Surveys
Investors Increasingly Fret Over Global Economy, Markets
Global investor angst grew this month, a survey has found.
A rising number of investors think the economic and market clouds
are darkening, fretful about rising protectionism and other
factors. They are taking some risks off the table, according to a
monthly survey by Bank
of America Merrill Lynch, published yesterday.
The number of respondents polled thinking that the global economy
is in a late part of the cycle - close to a turn downwards -
stood at 74 per cent in March, the highest percentage in the
survey’s history.
The threat of a trade war (30 per cent) is top of the risks most
commonly cited by investors for the first time since January
2017. This was followed by rise of inflation (23 per cent) and a
slowdown in global growth (16 per cent), as causes for worry.
Average cash balances fell slightly, at 4.6 per cent in March,
down from 4.7 per cent last month. Around 58 per cent of
investors surveyed said global earnings per share will grow by
more than 10 per cent in the next 12 months. The survey also
found that fund managers are going long on global stocks, banks,
and technology, whereas they remain short on bonds and
defensives.
Pessimism toward UK equities hits an all-time high as net 42 per
cent of investors surveyed say they are underweight within the
region.
On Japan, global investors are still overweight Japan equities
(net 26 per cent, subtracing those with bearish views from those
who are bullish) and, for the first time since 2009, the majority
of fund managers do not expect the Japanese yen to depreciate
over the next 12 months.
“Cracks in the bull case are starting to emerge, with fund
managers citing concerns over trade, stagflation and leverage,”
said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist. “Investors
have yet to act on these fears, however, as rates and earnings
are keeping the bulls bullish.”
BofAML's March global fund manager survey was conducted from 9 to
15 March; 201 respondents with $579 billion assets under
management participated in total.