Surveys
Investor Cash Levels Sink As Growth, Profit Expectations Hit One-Year High – Global Poll
President-elect Donald Trump's rise to power is music to investors' ears, according to a global fund manager poll.
Investors' cash levels have deflated from 5.8 per cent to 5 per
cent in November, the largest month-on-month drop since August
2009, according to a survey by Bank
of America Merrill Lynch.
The less wary approach comes as global growth and profit
expectations have risen to one-year highs, coupled with
investors' “unambiguously positive” perception of the US election
result for nominal gross domestic product.
The monthly fund manager survey sampled 177 clients with a total
of $456 billion of assets under management between 9-14 November
following the results of the US election.
Donald Trump winning the White House accelerated investment into
banks, out of high-dividend yield and bond proxies, in turn
catalysing buying of US equities.
BofA Merrill Lynch found a record net 56 per cent of
investors think current fiscal policy is too restrictive, with
global inflation expectations soaring to 85 per cent, a
12-year high, according to the survey.
However, stagflation expectations hit a four-year high as 2 per
cent of investors cited expectations of below-trend growth and
above-trend inflation throughout the next year.
Some 84 per cent of survey respondents said that protectionism,
the economic policy of restricting cross-border trade through
government regulation, poses the biggest risk to financial market
stability.
Elsewhere, allocation to emerging
market equities plummeted from 31 per cent overweight
to 4 per cent overweight throughout October.
Allocation to European equities hit a five-month high,
swelling from net 5 per cent overweight last month to 8 per cent
overweight.
Meanwhile, Japanese equity allocations dipped modestly in
November to net 5 per cent underweight from net 3 per cent
underweight last month.
“There will likely be a trade in bond proxies soon,” said Michael
Hartnett, chief investment strategist. “But our cyclical view of
peak liquidity, globalisation and inequality means the ‘yield’
dam has been broken.”
Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist, added:
“Global investors’ equity allocations towards the UK are at their
second lowest level since 2008, with the sterling considered the
most undervalued in the history of our long-running
survey.
“Europe seems placed for contrarians, with eurozone allocations
at below-average levels.”