Investment Strategies

As Global Tensions Rise, What Are Investment Opportunities In "Threatscape"? - BoA Merrill Lynch

Tom Burroughes Group Editor London 25 February 2014

As Global Tensions Rise, What Are Investment Opportunities In

Businesses that earn a living by protecting and mitigating security threats stand to be one of the gainers of troubled times, points out Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Even the most cursory perusal of the daily newsfeeds is a reminder of how scary the world can be. Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela, Egypt and Syria are only the most visible flashpoints. Then there is the shadowy but potentially equally worrisome world of cybercrime. Also, the more prosaic but equally distressing tolls from accidents in the home, work and in transport.

Businesses that earn a living by protecting and mitigating security threats stand to be one of the gainers of troubled times, points out Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

In a recent note on global safety and security, two of the bank’s analysts, Sarbjit Nahal and Valery Lucas-Leclin, point out, for example, how the rising risks of cyber-crime – such as denial-of-service attacks on computer systems - caused US firms the average cost each of $11.6 million last year (that average figure does of course mask massive variations between firms). Given such concerns, the BoA Merrill Lynch analysts have come up with a list of more than 80 global stocks that are exposed in some way to safety and security-related themes and solutions.

“The `threatscape’ is changing fast, with cyberscurity attacks and critical infrastructure breakdowns being recognised as one of the top five global risks today, and cyber eclipsing terrorism as a threat,” the bank’s note said.

The report is also an example of how some banks and asset manager firms have sought to remove what they see as the distortions of geography by offering “thematic investing”, playing on themes such as security, the emerging market middle class consumer; health and longevity, and luxury.

Cybercrime costs the global economy, BoA Merrill Lynch said, an estimated $500 billion. Meanwhile, the general public have become more sensitive to issues such as security, health and safety and social responsibility, forcing firms to act – creating problems but also investment opportunities, it said.

“Globalisation is driving the need for safety and posing new challenges from emerging market growth to outsourcing, the food supply chain, a degrading environment, and new diseases. We believe some corporates may push the boundaries of safety in their efforts to exploit new resources,” the note said.

As an example of how it screens stocks for safety/security themes, the bank pointed out that in the auto sector, the market for safety enhancements could reach £40 billion ($66.5 billion) by 2020. Firms producing parking assist technologies, passenger restraints, proximity detectors, airbags and brakes all stand to benefit, it said.

Among other sectors where the theme plays out are commercial and residential (everything from CCTV to cash handling solutions); cyberscurity; “homeland”, covering a variety of security measures against terrorism, etc; life science tools; oil and gas; testing, inspection and certification, and the workplace.

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