Investment Strategies
As Global Tensions Rise, What Are Investment Opportunities In "Threatscape"? - BoA Merrill Lynch
Businesses that earn a living by protecting and mitigating security threats stand to be one of the gainers of troubled times, points out Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Even the most cursory perusal of the daily newsfeeds is a
reminder of how scary the world can be. Ukraine, Thailand,
Venezuela, Egypt and Syria are only the most visible flashpoints.
Then there is the shadowy but potentially equally worrisome world
of cybercrime. Also, the more prosaic but equally distressing
tolls from accidents in the home, work and in transport.
Businesses that earn a living by protecting and mitigating
security threats stand to be one of the gainers of troubled
times, points out Bank
of America Merrill Lynch.
In a recent note on global safety and security, two of the bank’s
analysts, Sarbjit Nahal and Valery Lucas-Leclin, point out, for
example, how the rising risks of cyber-crime – such as
denial-of-service attacks on computer systems - caused US firms
the average cost each of $11.6 million last year (that average
figure does of course mask massive variations between firms).
Given such concerns, the BoA Merrill Lynch analysts have come up
with a list of more than 80 global stocks that are exposed in
some way to safety and security-related themes and solutions.
“The `threatscape’ is changing fast, with cyberscurity attacks
and critical infrastructure breakdowns being recognised as one of
the top five global risks today, and cyber eclipsing terrorism as
a threat,” the bank’s note said.
The report is also an example of how some banks and asset manager
firms have sought to remove what they see as the distortions of
geography by offering “thematic investing”, playing on themes
such as security, the emerging market middle class consumer;
health and longevity, and luxury.
Cybercrime costs the global economy, BoA Merrill Lynch said, an
estimated $500 billion. Meanwhile, the general public have become
more sensitive to issues such as security, health and safety and
social responsibility, forcing firms to act – creating problems
but also investment opportunities, it said.
“Globalisation is driving the need for safety and posing new
challenges from emerging market growth to outsourcing, the food
supply chain, a degrading environment, and new diseases. We
believe some corporates may push the boundaries of safety in
their efforts to exploit new resources,” the note said.
As an example of how it screens stocks for safety/security
themes, the bank pointed out that in the auto sector, the market
for safety enhancements could reach £40 billion ($66.5 billion)
by 2020. Firms producing parking assist technologies, passenger
restraints, proximity detectors, airbags and brakes all stand to
benefit, it said.
Among other sectors where the theme plays out are commercial and
residential (everything from CCTV to cash handling solutions);
cyberscurity; “homeland”, covering a variety of security measures
against terrorism, etc; life science tools; oil and gas; testing,
inspection and certification, and the workplace.